基于领域的对未来期望的不对称性。
Domain-based asymmetry in expectations of the future.
作者信息
Monga Ashwani, Rao Akshay R
机构信息
Department of Marketing, College of Business, The University of Texas at San Antonio, 6900 North Loop 1604 West, San Antonio, TX 78249, USA.
Department of Marketing, 3-150 Carlson School of Management, University of Minnesota, 321-19th Avenue South, Minneapolis, MN 55455, USA.
出版信息
Organ Behav Hum Decis Process. 2006 May;100(1):35-46. doi: 10.1016/j.obhdp.2006.02.002. Epub 2006 Mar 20.
We examine how prior outcomes can influence expectations about unrelated future events. Consistent with the affect literature, we first predict that prior outcomes will yield more optimistic expectations when the outcomes are positively, rather than negatively, valenced. We then predict that the impact of prior outcomes will depend on not only the valence, but also the domain of prior outcomes. Specifically, we draw from Prospect theory to predict that the impact of prior outcomes on future expectations will be greater in the domain of losses than in the domain of gains. Two lottery-based experiments demonstrate that this effect is robust across different starting and ending wealth states, and a third experiment shows that these differences in expectations also translate into differences in risk preferences.
我们研究了先前的结果如何影响对不相关未来事件的预期。与情感文献一致，我们首先预测，当结果为正而非负时，先前的结果将产生更乐观的预期。然后我们预测，先前结果的影响不仅取决于效价，还取决于先前结果的领域。具体而言，我们借鉴前景理论预测，先前结果对未来预期的影响在损失领域将大于收益领域。两项基于彩票的实验表明，这种效应在不同的起始和结束财富状态下都很稳健，第三项实验表明，这些预期差异也转化为风险偏好的差异。
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