Harrison Colin G, Williams Peter R
Global Institute of Sustainability, Arizona State University, P.O. Box 875402, Tempe, AZ 85287-5502, United States.
IBM Corporation, United States.
Simul Model Pract Theory. 2016 Jun;65:11-31. doi: 10.1016/j.simpat.2016.02.008. Epub 2016 Mar 9.
The frequency, social, and economic impacts of natural disasters show exponential increases in recent decades. Cities and countries around the world have begun to realize that these events are no longer "hundred year" storms, but repeat within a few years. As urbanisation continues throughout this century, more and more people and more economic activity will be concentrated in at-risk areas; especially as new arrivals in cities throughout Asia and Africa are likely to be concentrated in the highest risk districts, much as they often are in North America and Europe today. This article reviews recent growth of natural disasters and considers how a systems approach can improve approaches to mitigation and adaptation of these risks and to recovery from such events.
近几十年来，自然灾害的发生频率、社会影响和经济影响呈指数级增长。世界各国和城市已开始意识到，这些灾害不再是“百年一遇”的风暴，而是在几年内就会再次发生。随着本世纪城市化进程的持续推进，越来越多的人口和经济活动将集中在高风险地区；特别是在亚洲和非洲的城市，新涌入的人口很可能集中在风险最高的地区，就像如今在北美和欧洲经常出现的情况一样。本文回顾了自然灾害近期的增长情况，并探讨了系统方法如何能改进减轻和适应这些风险以及从此类事件中恢复的方法。
