Applied Meteorology Research Division, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seohobuk-ro 33, Seogwipo 63568, Korea.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020 Apr 11;17(8):2631. doi: 10.3390/ijerph17082631.
This study aimed to assess the heat-related risk (excess mortality rate) at six cities, namely, Seoul, Incheon, Daejeon, Gwangju, Daegu, and Busan, in South Korea using the daily maximum perceived temperature (PTmax), which is a physiology-based thermal comfort index, the wet-bulb globe temperature, which is meteorology-based thermal comfort index, and air temperature. Particularly, the applicability of PTmax was evaluated using excess mortality rate modeling. An event-based heat-related risk assessment model was employed for modeling the excess mortality rate. The performances of excess mortality rate models using those variables were evaluated for two data sets that were used (training data, 2000-2016) and not used (test data, 2017-2018) for the construction of the assessment models. Additionally, the excess mortality rate was separately modeled depending on regions and ages. PTmax is a good temperature indicator that can be used to model the excess mortality rate in South Korea. The application of PTmax in modeling the total mortality rate yields the best performances for the test data set, particularly for young people. From a forecasting perspective, PTmax is the most appropriate temperature indicator for assessing the heat-related excess mortality rate in South Korea.
本研究旨在利用基于生理的热舒适度指标日最高体感温度（PTmax）、基于气象的热舒适度指标湿球 globe 温度和空气温度，评估韩国六个城市（首尔、仁川、大田、光州、大邱和釜山）的与热相关的风险（超额死亡率）。特别是，利用超额死亡率模型评估了 PTmax 的适用性。采用基于事件的热相关风险评估模型来建立超额死亡率模型。评估了使用这些变量的超额死亡率模型在两个数据集（训练数据，2000-2016 年和未使用数据，2017-2018 年）上的性能，用于构建评估模型。此外，超额死亡率还根据地区和年龄进行了单独建模。PTmax 是一种很好的温度指标，可以用于建模韩国的超额死亡率。PTmax 在建模总死亡率方面的应用在测试数据集上表现最佳，特别是对于年轻人。从预测的角度来看，PTmax 是评估韩国与热相关的超额死亡率的最合适的温度指标。
