Sarah M. Bartsch is a project director at Public Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research (PHICOR), Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, City University of New York, in New York City.
Marie C. Ferguson is a project director at PHICOR, Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, City University of New York.
Health Aff (Millwood). 2020 Jun;39(6):927-935. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00426. Epub 2020 Apr 23.
With the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, one of the major concerns is the direct medical cost and resource use burden imposed on the US health care system. We developed a Monte Carlo simulation model that represented the US population and what could happen to each person who got infected. We estimated resource use and direct medical costs per symptomatic infection and at the national level, with various "attack rates" (infection rates), to understand the potential economic benefits of reducing the burden of the disease. A single symptomatic COVID-19 case could incur a median direct medical cost of $3,045 during the course of the infection alone. If 80 percent of the US population were to get infected, the result could be a median of 44.6 million hospitalizations, 10.7 million intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, 6.5 million patients requiring a ventilator, 249.5 million hospital bed days, and $654.0 billion in direct medical costs over the course of the pandemic. If 20 percent of the US population were to get infected, there could be a median of 11.2 million hospitalizations, 2.7 million ICU admissions, 1.6 million patients requiring a ventilator, 62.3 million hospital bed days, and $163.4 billion in direct medical costs over the course of the pandemic.
随着 2019 年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行，人们主要关注的是该病给美国医疗体系带来的直接医疗费用和资源使用负担。我们开发了一个蒙特卡罗模拟模型，代表了美国人口以及每个感染者可能发生的情况。我们估计了每例有症状感染的资源使用和直接医疗费用，并按全国水平进行了估计，同时考虑了各种“发病率”（感染率），以了解减轻疾病负担的潜在经济效益。在感染过程中，单个有症状的 COVID-19 病例的直接医疗费用中位数可能为 3045 美元。如果 80%的美国人口被感染，可能导致中位数 4460 万例住院治疗、1070 万例重症监护病房（ICU）入院、650 万例需要呼吸机的患者、24.95 亿个住院床位日，以及在大流行期间直接医疗费用 6540 亿美元。如果 20%的美国人口被感染，可能导致中位数 1120 万例住院治疗、270 万例 ICU 入院、160 万例需要呼吸机的患者、6230 万个住院床位日，以及在大流行期间直接医疗费用 1634 亿美元。
