估算 2020 年日本横滨钻石公主号游轮上的 2019 年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）病例的无症状比例。
Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship, Yokohama, Japan, 2020.
机构信息
Graduate School of Advanced Integrated Studies in Human Survivability, Kyoto University Yoshida-Nakaadachi-cho, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto, Japan.
Hakubi Center for Advanced Research, Kyoto University, Yoshidahonmachi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto, Japan.
出版信息
Euro Surveill. 2020 Mar;25(10). doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.10.2000180.
On 5 February 2020, in Yokohama, Japan, a cruise ship hosting 3,711 people underwent a 2-week quarantine after a former passenger was found with COVID-19 post-disembarking. As at 20 February, 634 persons on board tested positive for the causative virus. We conducted statistical modelling to derive the delay-adjusted asymptomatic proportion of infections, along with the infections' timeline. The estimated asymptomatic proportion was 17.9% (95% credible interval (CrI): 15.5-20.2%). Most infections occurred before the quarantine start.
2020 年 2 月 5 日，日本横滨，一艘搭载 3711 人的游轮在一名前乘客下船后被发现感染 COVID-19 后进行了为期两周的隔离。截至 2 月 20 日，船上共有 634 人检测出该致病病毒呈阳性。我们进行了统计建模，以推导出感染的调整后无症状比例，以及感染的时间线。估计的无症状比例为 17.9%（95%可信区间：15.5-20.2%）。大多数感染发生在隔离开始之前。
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