IEEE J Biomed Health Inform. 2020 Jul;24(7):1907-1916. doi: 10.1109/JBHI.2020.2988393. Epub 2020 Apr 20.
Military personnel have greater psychological stress and are at higher suicide attempt risk compared with the general population. High mental stress may cause suicide ideations which are crucially driving suicide attempts. However, traditional statistical methods could only find a moderate degree of correlation between psychological stress and suicide ideation in non-psychiatric individuals. This article utilizes machine learning techniques including logistic regression, decision tree, random forest, gradient boosting regression tree, support vector machine and multilayer perceptron to predict the presence of suicide ideation by six important psychological stress domains of the military males and females. The accuracies of all the six machine learning methods are over 98%. Among them, the multilayer perceptron and support vector machine provide the best predictions of suicide ideation approximately to 100%. As compared with the BSRS-5 score ≥7, a conventional criterion, for the presence of suicide ideation ≥1, the proposed algorithms can improve the performances of accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, precision, the AUC of ROC curve and the AUC of PR curve up to 5.7%, 35.9%, 4.6%, 65.2%, 4.3% and 53.2%, respectively; and for the presence of more severely intense suicide ideation ≥2, the improvements are 6.1%, 26.2%, 5.8%, 83.5%, 2.8% and 64.7%, respectively.
与普通人群相比,军人承受着更大的心理压力,自杀企图风险更高。高度的精神压力可能导致自杀意念,而自杀意念是自杀企图的关键驱动因素。然而,传统的统计方法只能在非精神疾病个体中发现心理压力与自杀意念之间存在中度相关性。本文利用机器学习技术,包括逻辑回归、决策树、随机森林、梯度提升回归树、支持向量机和多层感知机,预测男性和女性军人的六个重要心理压力领域是否存在自杀意念。所有六种机器学习方法的准确率均超过 98%。其中,多层感知机和支持向量机对自杀意念的预测准确率高达 100%左右。与传统的 BSRS-5 评分≥7 作为存在自杀意念的标准相比,所提出的算法可以将准确率、敏感度、特异性、精确率、ROC 曲线 AUC 和 PR 曲线 AUC 的性能分别提高 5.7%、35.9%、4.6%、65.2%、4.3%和 53.2%;对于更严重的强烈自杀意念(≥2),则可以分别提高 6.1%、26.2%、5.8%、83.5%、2.8%和 64.7%。
IEEE J Biomed Health Inform. 2020-7
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