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使用机器学习技术预测韩国青少年自杀高危人群的模型。

Prediction models for high risk of suicide in Korean adolescents using machine learning techniques.

机构信息

School of Medicine, Gachon University College of Medicine, Incheon, South Korea.

Department of Biomedical Engineering, Gachon University College of Medicine, Incheon, South Korea.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2019 Jun 6;14(6):e0217639. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0217639. eCollection 2019.


DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0217639
PMID:31170212
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6553749/
Abstract

OBJECTIVE: Suicide in adolescents is a major problem worldwide and previous history of suicide ideation and attempt represents the strongest predictors of future suicidal behavior. The aim of this study was to develop prediction model to identify Korean adolescents of high risk suicide (= who have history of suicide ideation/attempt in previous year) using machine learning techniques. METHODS: A nationally representative dataset of Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey (KYRBWS) was used (n = 59,984 of middle and high school students in 2017). The classification process was performed using machine learning techniques such as logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), artificial neural network (ANN), and extreme gradient boosting (XGB). RESULTS: A total of 7,443 adolescents (12.4%) had a previous history of suicidal ideation/attempt. In the multivariable analysis, sadness (odds ratio [OR], 6.41; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 6.08-6.87), violence (OR, 2.32; 95% CI, 2.01-2.67), substance use (OR, 1.93; 95% CI, 1.52-2.45), and stress (OR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.40-1.86) were associated factors. Taking into account 26 variables as predictors, the accuracy of models of machine learning techniques to predict the high-risk suicidal was comparable with that of LR; the accuracy was best in XGB (79.0%), followed by SVM (78.7%), LR (77.9%), RF (77.8%), and ANN (77.5%). CONCLUSIONS: The machine leaning techniques showed comparable performance with LR to classify adolescents who have previous history of suicidal ideation/attempt. This model will hopefully serve as a foundation for decreasing future suicides as it enables early identification of adolescents at risk of suicide and modification of risk factors.

摘要

目的:青少年自杀是一个全球性的重大问题,既往的自杀意念和自杀尝试史是未来自杀行为的最强预测指标。本研究旨在使用机器学习技术开发预测模型,以识别有自杀高风险的韩国青少年(=既往一年有自杀意念/尝试史)。

方法:使用具有全国代表性的韩国青少年风险行为网络调查(KYRBWS)数据集(2017 年有 59984 名中学生和高中生)。使用机器学习技术,如逻辑回归(LR)、随机森林(RF)、支持向量机(SVM)、人工神经网络(ANN)和极端梯度提升(XGB)进行分类过程。

结果:共有 7443 名青少年(12.4%)有既往自杀意念/尝试史。多变量分析显示,悲伤(比值比[OR],6.41;95%置信区间[95%CI],6.08-6.87)、暴力(OR,2.32;95%CI,2.01-2.67)、物质使用(OR,1.93;95%CI,1.52-2.45)和压力(OR,1.63;95%CI,1.40-1.86)是相关因素。考虑到 26 个预测变量,机器学习技术模型预测高危自杀的准确性与 LR 相当;XGB 的准确性最高(79.0%),其次是 SVM(78.7%)、LR(77.9%)、RF(77.8%)和 ANN(77.5%)。

结论:机器学习技术与 LR 相比,在对既往有自杀意念/尝试史的青少年进行分类方面表现出相当的性能。该模型有望成为减少未来自杀的基础,因为它能够早期识别有自杀风险的青少年,并改变风险因素。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e389/6553749/bee1c9f68ca3/pone.0217639.g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e389/6553749/9b4fe880aa0a/pone.0217639.g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e389/6553749/bee1c9f68ca3/pone.0217639.g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e389/6553749/9b4fe880aa0a/pone.0217639.g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e389/6553749/bee1c9f68ca3/pone.0217639.g002.jpg

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本文引用的文献

[1]
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J Affect Disord. 2018-11-12

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J Affect Disord. 2016-3-15

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J Prev Med Public Health. 2010-9

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