Department of Mechanical Engineering, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran.
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Shiraz University of Technology, Shiraz, Iran..
Sci Total Environ. 2020 Aug 1;728:138872. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138872. Epub 2020 Apr 21.
On 10 April 2020, Iran reported 68,192 COVID-19 cumulative cases including 4232 death and 35,465 recovery cases. Numerous factors could influence the transmission rate and survival of coronavirus. On this basis and according to the latest epidemiological researches, both ambient temperature (AT) and population size (PS) can be considered as significant transmissibility factors for coronavirus. The analysis of receiver operating characteristics (ROC) allows measuring the performance of a classification model using the confusion matrix. This study intends to investigate the sensitivity of AT and PS on the transmission rate of the novel coronavirus in different provinces of Iran. For this purpose, the information of each province of Iran including the annual average of AT and the number of healthy and diseased cases are categorized. Subsequently, the sensitivity and specificity analyses of both AT and PS factors are performed. The obtained results confirm that AT and PS have low sensibility and high sensitivity, respectively. Thus, there is no scientific reason to confirm that the number of COVID-19 cases in warmer climates is less than that of moderate or cold climates. Therefore, it is recommended that the cities/provinces with a population of over 1.7 million people have stricter inspections and more precise controls as their management policy.
2020 年 4 月 10 日，伊朗报告了 68192 例 COVID-19 累计病例，包括 4232 例死亡和 35465 例康复病例。许多因素可能影响冠状病毒的传播速度和存活率。在此基础上，并根据最新的流行病学研究，环境温度（AT）和人口规模（PS）都可以被认为是冠状病毒的重要传播因素。受试者工作特征（ROC）的分析可以使用混淆矩阵来衡量分类模型的性能。本研究旨在探讨 AT 和 PS 对伊朗不同省份新型冠状病毒传播率的敏感性。为此，对伊朗各省的信息进行了分类，包括年平均 AT 和健康和患病病例的数量。随后，对 AT 和 PS 因素的敏感性和特异性进行了分析。结果证实，AT 和 PS 的敏感性低，特异性高。因此，没有科学依据可以确认温暖气候下 COVID-19 病例的数量少于温和或寒冷气候下的病例数量。因此，建议人口超过 170 万的城市/省份采取更严格的检查和更精确的控制作为其管理政策。
