Emerg Infect Dis. 2020 Aug;26(8):1915-1917. doi: 10.3201/eid2608.200536. Epub 2020 Apr 22.
To determine the transmission potential of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in Iran in 2020, we estimated the reproduction number as 4.4 (95% CI 3.9-4.9) by using a generalized growth model and 3.5 (95% CI 1.3-8.1) by using epidemic doubling time. The reproduction number decreased to 1.55 after social distancing interventions were implemented.
为了确定 2020 年伊朗严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒 2 的传播潜力，我们使用广义增长模型估计其繁殖数为 4.4（95%置信区间 3.9-4.9），使用流行倍增时间估计其繁殖数为 3.5（95%置信区间 1.3-8.1）。实施社会隔离干预措施后，繁殖数下降至 1.55。
