Centre for Monitoring of Vectors (CMV), Netherlands Food and Consumer Product Safety Authority (NVWA), Wageningen, The Netherlands.
GRECO, Institute of Aquatic Ecology, University of Girona, Girona, Spain.
Parasit Vectors. 2020 Apr 26;13(1):217. doi: 10.1186/s13071-020-04077-3.
In the Netherlands, Aedes albopictus has been found each year since 2010 during routine exotic mosquito species surveillance at companies that import used tires. We developed habitat suitability models to investigate the potential risk of establishment and spread of this invasive species at these locations.
We used two methodologies: first, a species distribution model based on the maximum entropy modelling approach (MaxEnt) taking into consideration updated occurrence data of the species in Europe, and secondly, a spatial logic conditional model based on the temperature requirements of the species and using land surface temperature data (LST model).
Suitability assessment obtained with the MaxEnt model at European level accurately reflect the current distribution of the species and these results also depict moderately low values in parts of the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, the British islands and southern parts of Scandinavia. Winter temperature was the variable that contributed most to the performance of the model (47.3%). The results of the LST model showed that: (i) coastal areas are suitable for overwintering of eggs; (ii) large areas in the northern part of the country have a low suitability for adult survival; and (iii) the entire country is suitable for successful completion of the life-cycle if the species is introduced after the winter months. Results of the LST model revealed that temperatures in 2012 and 2014 did not limit the overwintering of eggs or survival of adults at the locations where the species was found. By contrast, for the years 2010, 2011 and 2013, overwintering of eggs at these locations is considered unlikely.
Results using two modelling methodologies show differences in predicted habitat suitability values. Based on the results of both models, the climatic conditions could hamper the successful overwintering of eggs of Ae. albopictus and their survival as adults in many areas of the country. However, during warm years with mild winters, many areas of the Netherlands offer climatic conditions suitable for developing populations. Regular updates of the models, using updated occurrence and climatic data, are recommended to study the areas at risk.
自 2010 年以来，每年在进口旧轮胎的公司进行外来蚊虫种例行监测时，荷兰都发现了白纹伊蚊。我们开发了栖息地适宜性模型，以调查该入侵物种在这些地点建立和传播的潜在风险。
我们使用了两种方法：首先，一种基于最大熵建模方法（MaxEnt）的物种分布模型，考虑了该物种在欧洲的最新出现数据；其次，一种基于物种温度要求并使用地表温度数据（LST 模型）的空间逻辑条件模型。
在欧洲层面上，MaxEnt 模型的适宜性评估准确反映了该物种的当前分布，这些结果还表明荷兰、比利时、丹麦、英国岛屿和斯堪的纳维亚南部部分地区的适宜性值较低。冬季温度是对模型性能贡献最大的变量（47.3%）。LST 模型的结果表明：（i）沿海地区适合卵越冬；（ii）该国北部大部分地区成虫的生存适宜性较低；（iii）如果该物种在冬季过后引入，整个国家都适合完成生命周期。LST 模型的结果表明，2012 年和 2014 年的温度并未限制在该物种发现地的卵越冬或成虫存活。相比之下，对于 2010 年、2011 年和 2013 年，这些地点的卵越冬不太可能。
两种建模方法的结果显示了预测栖息地适宜性值的差异。基于两个模型的结果，气候条件可能会阻碍白纹伊蚊卵的成功越冬及其在该国许多地区成虫的存活。然而，在温暖而冬季温和的年份，荷兰的许多地区都提供了适合种群发展的气候条件。建议定期更新模型，使用最新的出现和气候数据，以研究有风险的地区。
