Clinical Practice Teaching Center, Academic Affairs Office, Zhejiang Chinese Medical University, Hangzhou, China.
College of Basic Medicine, Zhejiang Chinese Medical University, Hangzhou, 310053, China.
BMC Infect Dis. 2023 Jul 17;23(1):473. doi: 10.1186/s12879-023-08444-0.
Dengue fever, transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, is a significant public health concern in tropical and subtropical regions. With the end of the COVID-19 pandemic and the reopening of the borders, dengue fever remains a threat to mainland China, Zhejiang province of China is facing a huge risk of importing the dengue virus. This study aims to analyze and predict the current and future potential risk regions for Aedes vectors distribution and dengue prevalence in Zhejiang province of China.
We collected occurrence records of DENV and DENV vectors globally from 2010 to 2022, along with historical and future climate data and human population density data. In order to predict the probability of DENV distribution in Zhejiang province of China under future conditions, the ecological niche of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus was first performed with historical climate data based on MaxEnt. Then, predicted results along with a set of bioclimatic variables, elevation and human population density were included in MaxEnt model to analyze the risk region of DENV in Zhejiang province. Finally, the established model was utilized to predict the spatial pattern of DENV risk in the current and future scenarios in Zhejiang province of China.
Our findings indicated that approximately 89.2% (90,805.6 KM) of Zhejiang province of China is under risk, within about 8.0% (8,144 KM) classified as high risk area for DENV prevalence. Ae. albopictus were identified as the primary factor influencing the distribution of DENV. Future predictions suggest that sustainable and "green" development pathways may increase the risk of DENV prevalence in Zhejiang province of China. Conversely, Fossil-fueled development pathways may reduce the risk due to the unsuitable environment for vectors.
The implications of this research highlight the need for effective vector control measures, community engagement, health education, and environmental initiatives to mitigate the potential spread of dengue fever in high-risk regions of Zhejiang province of China.
登革热是由伊蚊传播的一种重要的公共卫生问题，主要发生在热带和亚热带地区。随着新冠疫情的结束和边境的重新开放，登革热仍然是中国大陆的一个威胁，中国浙江省面临着输入登革热病毒的巨大风险。本研究旨在分析和预测中国浙江省目前和未来伊蚊媒介分布和登革热流行的潜在风险区域。
我们从 2010 年至 2022 年收集了全球登革热病毒和登革热病毒媒介的发生记录，以及历史和未来的气候数据和人类人口密度数据。为了预测中国浙江省未来条件下登革热病毒的分布概率，我们首先利用历史气候数据，基于最大熵模型（MaxEnt）对埃及伊蚊和白纹伊蚊的生态位进行了预测。然后，将预测结果与一系列生物气候变量、海拔和人类人口密度一起纳入 MaxEnt 模型，以分析浙江省登革热病毒的风险区域。最后，利用建立的模型预测了当前和未来浙江省登革热病毒风险的空间格局。
我们的研究结果表明，浙江省约有 89.2%（90805.6 平方公里）处于风险之中，约 8.0%（8144 平方公里）被归类为登革热流行的高风险区域。白纹伊蚊被认为是影响登革热病毒分布的主要因素。未来预测表明，可持续和“绿色”发展路径可能会增加浙江省登革热病毒流行的风险。相反，化石燃料驱动的发展路径可能会由于媒介不适合的环境而降低风险。
本研究的意义在于强调需要采取有效的媒介控制措施、社区参与、健康教育和环境倡议，以减轻浙江省高风险地区登革热病毒的潜在传播。
