Gunthe Sachin S, Swain Basudev, Patra Satya S, Amte Aneesh
EWRE Division, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Madras, Chennai, 600 036 India.
Transportation Engineering Division, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Madras, Chennai, 600 036 India.
Z Gesundh Wiss. 2022;30(1):219-228. doi: 10.1007/s10389-020-01279-y. Epub 2020 Apr 24.
The novel coronavirus, since its first outbreak in December, has, up till now, affected approximately 114,542 people across 115 countries. Many international agencies are devoting efforts to enhance the understanding of the evolving COVID-19 outbreak on an international level, its influences, and preparedness. At present, COVID-19 appears to affect individuals through person-to-person means, like other commonly found cold or influenza viruses. It is widely known and acknowledged that viruses causing influenza peak during cold temperatures and gradually subside in the warmer temperature, owing to their seasonality. Thus, COVID-19, due to its regular flu-like symptoms, is also expected to show similar seasonality and subside as the global temperatures rise in the northern hemisphere with the onset of spring. Despite these speculations, however, the systematic analysis in the global perspective of the relation between COVID-19 spread and meteorological parameters is unavailable. Here, by analyzing the region- and city-specific affected global data and corresponding meteorological parameters, we show that there is an optimum range of temperature and UV index strongly affecting the spread and survival of the virus, whereas precipitation, relative humidity, cloud cover, etc. have no effect on the virus. Unavailability of pharmaceutical interventions would require greater preparedness and alert for the effective control of COVID-19. Under these conditions, the information provided here could be very helpful for the global community struggling to fight this global crisis. It is, however, important to note that the information presented here clearly lacks any physiological evidences, which may merit further investigation. Thus, any attempt for management, implementation, and evaluation strategies responding to the crisis arising due to the COVID-19 outbreak must not consider the evaluation presented here as the foremost factor.
自去年12月首次爆发以来，新型冠状病毒截至目前已影响了115个国家的约114542人。许多国际机构正在努力加深对新冠疫情在国际层面的演变、其影响以及应对准备情况的了解。目前，新冠病毒似乎像其他常见的感冒或流感病毒一样，通过人际传播的方式感染个体。众所周知，由于流感病毒具有季节性，导致流感的病毒在寒冷天气达到高峰，并在温暖天气逐渐消退。因此，鉴于新冠病毒具有类似流感的常见症状，随着北半球春季来临全球气温上升，预计它也会呈现类似的季节性并逐渐消退。然而，尽管有这些推测，但目前尚无从全球视角对新冠病毒传播与气象参数之间关系进行的系统分析。在此，通过分析特定地区和城市的全球受影响数据以及相应的气象参数，我们发现存在一个最佳温度范围和紫外线指数，它们会强烈影响病毒的传播和存活，而降水、相对湿度、云量等对病毒没有影响。由于缺乏药物干预措施，需要加强准备并提高警惕，以有效控制新冠疫情。在这种情况下，此处提供的信息对于全球抗击这一全球危机的努力可能会非常有帮助。然而，需要注意的是，此处提供的信息显然缺乏任何生理学证据，这可能值得进一步研究。因此，任何针对因新冠疫情引发的危机制定管理、实施和评估策略的尝试，都不应将此处的评估作为首要因素。
