Centre for Applied Ecology "Prof. Baeta Neves"/InBIO Associate Laboratory, Instituto Superior de Agronomia, Universidade de Lisboa, Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017, Lisboa, Portugal.
CIBIO/InBIO, Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos, Laboratório Associado, Universidade do Porto, Campus Agrário de Vairão, 4485-601, Vairão, Portugal.
Sci Rep. 2020 Apr 29;10(1):7207. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-64087-0.
Climate change is predicted to severely impact interactions between prey, predators and habitats. In Southern Europe, within the Mediterranean climate, herbaceous vegetation achieves its maximum growth in middle spring followed by a three-month dry summer, limiting prey availability for insectivorous birds. Lesser kestrels (Falco naumanni) breed in a time-window that matches the nestling-rearing period with the peak abundance of grasshoppers and forecasted climate change may impact reproductive success through changes in prey availability and abundance. We used Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as a surrogate of habitat quality and prey availability to investigate the impacts of forecasted climate change and extreme climatic events on lesser kestrel breeding performance. First, using 14 years of data from 15 colonies in Southwestern Iberia, we linked fledging success and climatic variables with NDVI, and secondly, based on these relationships and according to climatic scenarios for 2050 and 2070, forecasted NDVI and fledging success. Finally, we evaluated how fledging success was influenced by drought events since 2004. Despite predicting a decrease in vegetation greenness in lesser kestrel foraging areas during spring, we found no impacts of predicted gradual rise in temperature and decline in precipitation on their fledging success. Notwithstanding, we found a decrease of 12% in offspring survival associated with drought events, suggesting that a higher frequency of droughts might, in the future, jeopardize the recent recovery of the European population. Here, we show that extreme events, such as droughts, can have more significant impacts on species than gradual climatic changes, especially in regions like the Mediterranean Basin, a biodiversity and climate change hotspot.
气候变化预计将严重影响猎物、捕食者和栖息地之间的相互作用。在南欧，在地中海气候区，草本植被在仲春达到最大生长量，随后是长达三个月的干燥夏季，限制了食虫鸟类对猎物的获取。红隼（Falco naumanni）在繁殖期与蚱蜢数量高峰期相吻合的时间窗口内繁殖，预计气候变化可能通过猎物的可获得性和丰度的变化来影响繁殖成功率。我们使用归一化植被指数（NDVI）作为栖息地质量和猎物可获得性的替代指标，研究了预测气候变化和极端气候事件对红隼繁殖表现的影响。首先，我们利用来自伊比利亚半岛西南部 15 个群体的 14 年数据，将育雏成功率与 NDVI 与气候变量联系起来；其次，根据这些关系，并根据 2050 年和 2070 年的气候情景，预测了 NDVI 和育雏成功率。最后，我们评估了自 2004 年以来干旱事件对育雏成功率的影响。尽管预测了红隼觅食区春季植被绿色度的下降，但我们发现预测的温度逐渐升高和降水量下降对其育雏成功率没有影响。尽管如此，我们发现与干旱事件相关的后代存活率下降了 12%，这表明未来干旱事件的频率增加可能会危及欧洲种群的近期恢复。在这里，我们表明，极端事件，如干旱，对物种的影响可能比逐渐的气候变化更大，特别是在地中海盆地等生物多样性和气候变化热点地区。
