Escuela de Medicina. Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia. Tunja, Colombia; Fundación Valle del Lili, Centro de Investigaciones Clínicas, Cra 98 No. 18 - 49, Cali 760032, Colombia.
Escuela de Medicina. Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia. Tunja, Colombia; Centro Internacional de Entrenamiento e Investigaciones Médicas, CIDEIM, Cali, Colombia.
Int J Infect Dis. 2020 Jun;95:316-318. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.04.069. Epub 2020 Apr 30.
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become pandemic and turn in a challenge for Latin America. Understanding the dynamics of the epidemic is essential for decision making, and to reduce the health, economic, and social impacts of the pandemic. The present study aimed to estimate the effective reproductive number (R) of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-Cov2) infection during the first 10 days of the outbreak in seven Latin American countries with the highest incidence of cases as of March 23, 2020. Furthermore, we chose to compare the seven countries with Spain and Italy given their history with the virus.
Incidence data retrieved from the COVID-19 data repository by Johns Hopkins University were analyzed. The R was calculated for the first 10 days of the epidemic in Brazil, Ecuador, Chile, Colombia, Panama, Mexico, and Peru. R estimations were compared with Spain and Italy values for the same interval.
The median R for the first 10 days of the COVID-19 epidemic were 2.90 (2.67-3.14) for Spain and 2.83 (2.7-2.96) for Italy. Latin American R estimations were higher in Ecuador (3.95(3.7-4.21)), Panama (3.95(3.7-4.21)), and Brazil (3.95(3.7-4.21)). The smallest one was observed in Peru (2.36(2.11-2.63)). All Latin American countries had R greater than 2.
The initial stages of the COVID-19 epidemic in Latin America suggested a high Rt. Interventions such as domestic and international travel restrictions, educational institutions closure, social distancing, and intensified case surveillance should be adopted to prevent the collapse of the health systems.
2019 年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）已在全球大流行，对拉丁美洲构成挑战。了解疫情动态对于决策制定以及减轻疫情对健康、经济和社会的影响至关重要。本研究旨在估算截至 2020 年 3 月 23 日拉丁美洲七个发病率最高的国家 COVID-19 爆发的前 10 天内严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒 2（SARS-CoV2）感染的有效繁殖数（R）。此外，鉴于西班牙和意大利的病毒感染史，我们选择将这七个国家与这两个国家进行比较。
从约翰霍普金斯大学的 COVID-19 数据存储库中检索发病率数据。对巴西、厄瓜多尔、智利、哥伦比亚、巴拿马、墨西哥和秘鲁 COVID-19 流行的前 10 天的 R 进行了计算。将 R 的估计值与同期西班牙和意大利的值进行了比较。
COVID-19 流行的前 10 天，西班牙的 R 中位数为 2.90（2.67-3.14），意大利为 2.83（2.7-2.96）。厄瓜多尔（3.95（3.7-4.21））、巴拿马（3.95（3.7-4.21））和巴西（3.95（3.7-4.21））的 R 估计值较高。秘鲁（2.36（2.11-2.63））的数值最小。所有拉丁美洲国家的 R 均大于 2。
COVID-19 在拉丁美洲的早期流行表明 Rt 较高。应采取国内和国际旅行限制、关闭教育机构、保持社交距离和加强病例监测等干预措施，以防止卫生系统崩溃。
