da Silva Rafael André, de Souza Ferreira Luiz Philipe, Leite Jean Michel Rocha Sampaio, Tiraboshi Fernanda Assunção, Valente Thiago Maciel, de Paiva Roda Vinicius Moraes, Duarte Sanchez Jeniffer Johana
Life Systems Biology Graduate Program, Institute of Biomedical Sciences,University of São Paulo (ICB/USP), São Paulo, SP, Brazil.
Biosciences Graduate Program, Intitute of Biosciences, Letters and Exact Sciences, São Paulo State University (IBILCE/UNESP), São José do Rio Preto, SP, Brazil.
Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2022 Mar 14;106(5):1486-90. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.21-0217.
Social isolation is extremely important to minimize the effects of a pandemic. Latin American countries have similar socioeconomic characteristics and health system infrastructures. These countries face difficulties in dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic, and some of them have very high death rates. The government stringency index (GSI) of 12 Latin American countries was gathered from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker project. The GSI is calculated by considering nine social distancing and isolation measures. Population data from the United Nations Population Fund and number-of-deaths data were collected from the dashboard of the WHO. We performed an analysis of the data collected from March through December 2020 using a mixed linear model. Peru, Brazil, Chile, Bolivia, Colombia, Argentina, and Ecuador had the highest death rates, with an increasing trend over time. Suriname, Venezuela, Uruguay, Paraguay, and Guyana had the lowest death rates, and these rates remained steady. The GSI in most countries followed the same pattern during the months analyzed. In other words, high indices at the beginning of the pandemic and lower indices in the latter months, whereas the number of deaths increased during the entire period. Almost no country kept its GSI high for a long time, especially from October to December. Time and GSI, as well as their interaction, were highly significant. As their interaction increases, the death rate decreases. In conclusion, a greater GSI at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic was associated with a decrease in the number of deaths over time in Latin American countries.
社交隔离对于将大流行病的影响降至最低极为重要。拉丁美洲国家具有相似的社会经济特征和卫生系统基础设施。这些国家在应对新冠疫情时面临困难，其中一些国家的死亡率非常高。12个拉丁美洲国家的政府应对严格指数（GSI）取自牛津新冠疫情政府应对追踪项目。GSI是通过考虑九项社会距离和隔离措施来计算的。联合国人口基金的人口数据和死亡人数数据是从世卫组织的数据仪表盘收集的。我们使用混合线性模型对2020年3月至12月收集的数据进行了分析。秘鲁、巴西、智利、玻利维亚、哥伦比亚、阿根廷和厄瓜多尔的死亡率最高，且随时间呈上升趋势。苏里南、委内瑞拉、乌拉圭、巴拉圭和圭亚那的死亡率最低，且这些死亡率保持稳定。在分析的几个月中，大多数国家的GSI呈现相同模式。换句话说，疫情开始时指数较高，后期指数较低，而死亡人数在整个期间都在增加。几乎没有国家长时间保持高GSI，尤其是从10月到12月。时间和GSI及其相互作用具有高度显著性。随着它们相互作用的增加，死亡率下降。总之，在新冠疫情开始时较高的GSI与拉丁美洲国家随时间推移死亡人数的减少有关。
