Longitudinal changes in adolescent cigarette smoking behavior: onset and cessation.

Employing a 1-year longitudinal design, this study examined factors related to change in adolescent smoking. Predictors of smoking onset differed from predictors of continued smoking, underscoring the importance of studying factors related to adolescent smoking onset separately from mechanisms associated with changes in smoking among current smokers. Peer smoking predicted continuation of smoking after smoking initiation. Smokers received over 26 times more offers to smoke than did nonsmokers, suggesting that smokers attempting to quit need effective refusal skills to be successful. Habitual smoking was found to develop slowly, providing a substantial time window for refusal skill training and other prevention efforts. Predictors of smoking onset differed by developmental level. Peer smoking, and marijuana use were stronger predictors of smoking onset for high-school students, and number of cigarette offers predicted better among middle-school students. Parent variables were not significant predictors of later smoking. Intention to smoke was unrelated to onset and was redundant with pretest smoking behavior in predicting cessation.