McCaul K D, Glasgow R, O'Neill H K, Freeborn V, Rump B S
J Sch Health. 1982 Aug;52(8):342-6. doi: 10.1111/j.1746-1561.1982.tb07132.x.
Two hundred and ninety-seven seventh grade students (143 males and 154 females) participated in a prospective study to predict adolescent cigarette smoking behavior one year later. Predictor variables included 10 survey items assessing the smoking behavior of students' friends and family, students' school behavior and beliefs about smoking and students' intentions to smoke in the future. The one-year follow-up survey was administered under "bogus pipeline" conditions to enhance the validity of self-reported smoking status by including the collection of saliva thiocyanate samples. Univariate analyses indicated that smokers differed from nonsmokers on a number of measures and that there were few sex differences on either the survey variables or on smoking status. Stepwise discriminant function analyses revealed that it was possible to accurately predict the onset of adolescent cigarette smoking by combining the survey variables. The three variables that consistently accounted for the greatest proportion of te variance were number of friends who smoke, intentions to smoke in the future and percent of older siblings who smoke. The implications of this work for programs intended to prevent adolescent smoking are discussed.
297名七年级学生（143名男生和154名女生）参与了一项前瞻性研究，以预测一年后青少年的吸烟行为。预测变量包括10个调查项目，评估学生朋友和家人的吸烟行为、学生的学校行为以及对吸烟的看法，还有学生未来吸烟的意图。一年后的随访调查是在“伪管道”条件下进行的，通过收集唾液硫氰酸盐样本，增强自我报告吸烟状况的有效性。单变量分析表明，吸烟者与不吸烟者在多项指标上存在差异，且在调查变量或吸烟状况方面几乎不存在性别差异。逐步判别函数分析显示，通过综合调查变量可以准确预测青少年吸烟行为的开始。始终占方差最大比例的三个变量是吸烟的朋友数量、未来吸烟的意图以及吸烟的哥哥姐姐的比例。本文讨论了这项研究对旨在预防青少年吸烟项目的启示。
