Iacus Stefano Maria, Natale Fabrizio, Santamaria Carlos, Spyratos Spyridon, Vespe Michele
European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Italy.
Saf Sci. 2020 Sep;129:104791. doi: 10.1016/j.ssci.2020.104791. Epub 2020 May 6.
Due to the coronavirus global crisis, most countries have put in place restrictive measures in order to confine the pandemia and contain the number of casualties. Among the restrictive measures, air traffic suspension is certainly quite effective in reducing the mobility on the global scale in the short term but it also has high socio-economic impact on the long and short term. The main focus of this study is to collect and prepare data on air passengers traffic worldwide with the scope of analyze the impact of travel ban on the aviation sector. Based on historical data from January 2010 till October 2019, a forecasting model is implemented in order to set a reference baseline. Making use of airplane movements extracted from online flight tracking platforms and on-line booking systems, this study presents also a first assessment of recent changes in flight activity around the world as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. To study the effects of air travel ban on aviation and in turn its socio-economic, several scenarios are constructed based on past pandemic crisis and the observed flight volumes. It turns out that, according to these hypothetical scenarios, in the first Quarter of 2020 the impact of aviation losses could have negatively reduced World GDP by 0.02% to 0.12% according to the observed data and, in the worst case scenarios, at the end of 2020 the loss could be as high as 1.41-1.67% and job losses may reach the value of 25-30 millions. Focusing on EU27, the GDP loss may amount to 1.66-1.98% by the end of 2020 and the number of job losses from 4.2 to 5 millions in the worst case scenarios. Some countries will be more affected than others in the short run and most European airlines companies will suffer from the travel ban. We hope that these preliminary results may be of help for informed policy making design of exit strategies from this global crisis.
由于新冠病毒全球危机，大多数国家已实施限制措施，以控制疫情传播并减少伤亡人数。在这些限制措施中，空中交通暂停在短期内确实能有效降低全球范围内的人员流动，但从长期和短期来看，它也会对社会经济产生重大影响。本研究的主要重点是收集和整理全球航空客运数据，以分析旅行禁令对航空业的影响。基于2010年1月至2019年10月的历史数据，实施了一个预测模型，以设定一个参考基线。利用从在线航班跟踪平台和在线预订系统中提取的飞机移动数据，本研究还对新冠疫情导致的全球航班活动近期变化进行了首次评估。为了研究航空旅行禁令对航空业及其社会经济的影响，根据过去的疫情危机和观察到的航班数量构建了几种情景。结果表明，根据这些假设情景，根据观察到的数据，2020年第一季度航空业损失可能使世界GDP下降0.02%至0.12%，在最坏的情况下，到2020年底损失可能高达1.41%-1.67%，失业人数可能达到2500万至3000万。以欧盟27国为例，到2020年底，GDP损失可能达到1.66%-1.98%，在最坏的情况下，失业人数将达到420万至500万。短期内，一些国家将比其他国家受到更大影响，大多数欧洲航空公司将受到旅行禁令的冲击。我们希望这些初步结果可能有助于为走出这场全球危机的明智政策制定和退出战略设计提供帮助。
