National Center on Birth Defects and Developmental Disabilities, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 4770 Buford Highway NE, (MS S106-4), Atlanta, GA, 30341, USA.
J Autism Dev Disord. 2020 Dec;50(12):4258-4266. doi: 10.1007/s10803-020-04494-4.
U.S. national and state population-based estimates of adults living with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) are nonexistent due to the lack of existing surveillance systems funded to address this need. Therefore, we estimated national and state prevalence of adults 18-84 years living with ASD using simulation in conjunction with Bayesian hierarchal models. In 2017, we estimated that approximately 2.21% (95% simulation interval (SI) 1.95%, 2.45%) or 5,437,988 U.S. adults aged 18 and older have ASD, with state prevalence ranging from 1.97% (95% SI 1.55%, 2.45%) in Louisiana to 2.42% (95% SI 1.93%, 2.99%) in Massachusetts. Prevalence and case estimates of adults living with ASD (diagnosed and undiagnosed) can help states estimate the need for diagnosing and providing services to those unidentified.
由于缺乏用于满足这一需求的现有监测系统，目前还没有关于美国全国和各州成年自闭症谱系障碍（ASD）患者人数的估计数据。因此，我们使用模拟结合贝叶斯层次模型来估计全国和各州 18-84 岁成年人 ASD 的患病率。2017 年，我们估计大约有 2.21%（95%模拟区间（SI）1.95%，2.45%）或 5437988 名美国 18 岁及以上成年人患有 ASD，各州的患病率从路易斯安那州的 1.97%（95% SI 1.55%，2.45%）到马萨诸塞州的 2.42%（95% SI 1.93%，2.99%）不等。成年 ASD 患者（已确诊和未确诊）的患病率和病例估计数有助于各州评估诊断和为未确诊患者提供服务的需求。
