利用中国大陆31个省份的接触者追踪监测数据估算代际传播间隔和症状出现前期的时间间隔。
Estimating the time interval between transmission generations and the presymptomatic period by contact tracing surveillance data from 31 provinces in the mainland of China.
作者信息
Ding Zhongxing, Wang Kai, Shen Mingwang, Wang Kai, Zhao Shi, Song Wenyu, Li Rui, Li Zhongjie, Wang Liping, Feng Ganzhu, Hu Zhiliang, Wei Hongxia, Xiao Yanni, Bao Changjun, Hu Jianli, Zhu Liguo, Li Yong, Chen Xufeng, Yin Yi, Wang Weiming, Cai Yongli, Peng Zhihang, Shen Hongbing
机构信息
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, China.
Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geriatrics, Department of Geriatrics, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, China.
出版信息
Fundam Res. 2021 Mar;1(2):104-110. doi: 10.1016/j.fmre.2021.02.002. Epub 2021 Feb 7.
The global pandemic of 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a great assault to public health. Presymptomatic transmission cannot be controlled with measures designed for symptomatic persons, such as isolation. This study aimed to estimate the interval of the transmission generation (TG) and the presymptomatic period of COVID-19, and compare the fitting effects of TG and serial interval (SI) based on the SEIHR model incorporating the surveillance data of 3453 cases in 31 provinces. These data were allocated into three distributions and the value of AIC presented that the Weibull distribution fitted well. The mean of TG was 5.2 days (95% CI: 4.6-5.8). The mean of the presymptomatic period was 2.4 days (95% CI: 1.5-3.2). The dynamic model using TG as the generation time performed well. Eight provinces exhibited a basic reproduction number from 2.16 to 3.14. Measures should be taken to control presymptomatic transmission in the COVID-19 pandemic.
2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）全球大流行是对公共卫生的巨大冲击。针对有症状者设计的措施，如隔离，无法控制症状出现前的传播。本研究旨在估计COVID-19的传播代间隔（TG）和症状出现前期，并基于纳入31个省份3453例病例监测数据的SEIHR模型，比较TG和序列间隔（SI）的拟合效果。这些数据被分配到三种分布中，AIC值表明威布尔分布拟合良好。TG的平均值为5.2天（95%置信区间：4.6 - 5.8）。症状出现前期的平均值为2.4天（95%置信区间：1.5 - 3.2）。以TG作为代时的动态模型表现良好。八个省份的基本再生数在2.16至3.14之间。在COVID-19大流行中应采取措施控制症状出现前的传播。
Zotero 插件