Yousefpour Amin, Jahanshahi Hadi, Bekiros Stelios
School of Mechanical Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, 11155-4563, Iran.
Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg R3T 5V6, Canada.
Chaos Solitons Fractals. 2020 Jul;136:109883. doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109883. Epub 2020 May 16.
Understanding the early transmission dynamics of diseases and estimating the effectiveness of control policies play inevitable roles in the prevention of epidemic diseases. To this end, this paper is concerned with the design of optimal control strategies for the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). A mathematical model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission based on Wuhan's data is considered. To solve the problem effectively and efficiently, a multi-objective genetic algorithm is proposed to achieve high-quality schedules for various factors including contact rate and transition rate of symptomatic infected individuals to the quarantined infected class. By changing these factors, two optimal policies are successfully designed. This study has two main scientific contributions that are: (1) This is pioneer research that proposes policies regarding COVID-19, (2) This is also the first research that addresses COVID-19 and considers its economic consequences through a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm. Numerical simulations conspicuously demonstrate that by applying the proposed optimal policies, governments could find useful and practical ways for control of the disease.
了解疾病的早期传播动态并评估防控政策的有效性在预防传染病方面发挥着不可或缺的作用。为此,本文关注新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)最优控制策略的设计。考虑了一个基于武汉数据的严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2(SARS-CoV-2)传播的数学模型。为了有效且高效地解决该问题,提出了一种多目标遗传算法,以实现针对包括接触率和有症状感染者向隔离感染者类别转变率等各种因素的高质量调度。通过改变这些因素,成功设计了两种最优策略。本研究有两个主要科学贡献,即:(1)这是提出关于COVID-19政策的开创性研究;(2)这也是首个通过多目标进化算法处理COVID-19并考虑其经济后果的研究。数值模拟显著表明,通过应用所提出的最优策略,政府能够找到控制该疾病的有用且实际的方法。