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利用传染病经济学数学模型评估人类对 COVID-19 政策和疾病进展的反应。

Leveraging an epidemic-economic mathematical model to assess human responses to COVID-19 policies and disease progression.

机构信息

Africa-Canada Artificial Intelligence and Data Innovation Consortium (ACADIC), Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, York University, Toronto, Canada.

Africa-Canada Artificial Intelligence and Data Innovation Consortium (ACADIC), The Advanced Disaster, Emergency and Rapid Response Program, York University, Toronto, Canada.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2023 Aug 8;13(1):12842. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-39723-0.

Abstract

It is imperative that resources are channelled towards programs that are efficient and cost effective in combating the spread of COVID-19, the disease caused by the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). This study proposed and analyzed control strategies for that purpose. We developed a mathematical disease model within an optimal control framework that allows us to investigate the best approach for curbing COVID-19 epidemic. We address the following research question: what is the role of community compliance as a measure for COVID-19 control? Analyzing the impact of community compliance of recommended guidelines by health authorities-examples, social distancing, face mask use, and sanitizing-coupled with efforts by health authorities in areas of vaccine provision and effective quarantine-showed that the best intervention in addition to implementing vaccination programs and effective quarantine measures, is the active incorporation of individuals' collective behaviours, and that resources should also be directed towards community campaigns on the importance of face mask use, social distancing, and frequent sanitizing, and any other collective activities. We also demonstrated that collective behavioral response of individuals influences the disease dynamics; implying that recommended health policy should be contextualized.

摘要

必须将资源用于那些在抗击 COVID-19(由严重急性呼吸系统综合症冠状病毒 2 引起的疾病)方面高效且具有成本效益的项目。本研究为此提出并分析了控制策略。我们在最优控制框架内开发了一个数学疾病模型,该模型使我们能够研究遏制 COVID-19 流行的最佳方法。我们提出了以下研究问题:社区合规性作为 COVID-19 控制措施的作用是什么?通过分析卫生当局建议的社区合规性(例如,社交距离、戴口罩和消毒)的影响,以及卫生当局在疫苗供应和有效隔离方面的努力,我们发现除了实施疫苗接种计划和有效隔离措施外,最好的干预措施是积极纳入个人的集体行为,并且应该将资源用于社区宣传,强调戴口罩、保持社交距离和经常消毒以及任何其他集体活动的重要性。我们还表明,个人的集体行为反应会影响疾病动态;这意味着推荐的卫生政策应该是有针对性的。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/37b0/10409770/a546d6ca042b/41598_2023_39723_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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