Eastern Michigan University, College of Business, 300 W. Michigan Ave Ypsilanti, MI 48197, USA.
Public Health. 2020 Jun;183:52-54. doi: 10.1016/j.puhe.2020.03.025. Epub 2020 May 16.
To estimate drivers of concussions during punt kick returns in football and consider rule change incentives to potentially reduce concussions.
The design of the study was to analyze concussions during punt returns.
National Football League data of all punts from the 2016 and 2017 seasons are examined using propensity score matching (PSM) to estimate the causal effect of punt returns on the likelihood of a player concussion.
The PSM logistic regression estimates that the odds of a concussion increase 8.31, or are 731% higher, when a punt is returned versus not returned (log-odds b = 2.118, P < .001). Punt distance increases punt return likelihood, but time left in the game and the yard line where the punt is received reduces punt return likelihood.
Returning a punt substantially increases the risks of a concussion. To reduce concussions in football, incentives should encourage punters to not make the punt returnable and encourage punt returners to not return the punt.
评估足球中铲球回踢时脑震荡的驱动因素，并考虑规则改变的激励措施，以潜在降低脑震荡的发生。
本研究的设计是分析铲球回踢时的脑震荡情况。
使用倾向评分匹配（PSM）分析 2016 年和 2017 年所有铲球的美国国家橄榄球联盟数据，以估计铲球回踢对球员脑震荡可能性的因果效应。
PSM 逻辑回归估计，与不回踢相比，铲球回踢的脑震荡几率增加 8.31 倍，即增加 731%（对数几率 b=2.118，P<.001）。铲球距离增加了铲球回踢的可能性，但比赛剩余时间和接到铲球的码线位置降低了铲球回踢的可能性。
铲球回踢大大增加了脑震荡的风险。为了减少足球中的脑震荡，激励措施应鼓励踢球者不使铲球可回踢，并鼓励铲球回踢者不回踢铲球。
