A model for estimating the potential costs and savings of osteoporosis prevention strategies.

A model was developed which estimates the costs of osteoporosis risk evaluation and treatment, and the resulting savings in terms of reduced fracture frequency, for the adult female population of the United States. In the absence of treatment, the model predicts 1.44 million fractures will occur annually from non-violent causes. Treatment of all women beginning at age 50 with an agent that slows bone loss by 50% would reduce the number of these fractures by 0.59 million. Selective treatment of the 47% of women at the greatest fracture risk would reduce the number of fractures by 0.45 million, but would only cost 47% as much as treating all women. Additional data are required before the model can be used to evaluate specific treatment regimens. However, it appears that selective treatment of those at highest risk would yield the greatest benefit to cost ratio, if only benefits related to reduced fracture frequency are considered.