Zhang Yinbo, Meng Qingxin, Wang Yuzhuo, Zhang Xiaolong, Wang Wei
College of Resources and Environment Shanxi University of Finance and Economics Taiyuan China.
College of Environmental and Resource Sciences Shanxi University Taiyuan China.
Ecol Evol. 2020 Mar 31;10(10):4352-4361. doi: 10.1002/ece3.6202. eCollection 2020 May.
Theaceae, an economically important angiosperm family, is widely distributed in tropical and subtropical forests in Asia. In China, Theaceae has particularly high abundances and endemism, comprising ~75% of the total genera and ~46% of the total species worldwide. Therefore, predicting the response of Theaceae species to climate change is vital. In this study, we collected distribution data for 200 wild Theaceae species in China, and predicted their distribution patterns under current and future climactic conditions by species distribution modeling (SDM). We revealed that Theaceae species richness is highest in southeastern China and on Hainan Island, reaching its highest value (137 species) in Fujian Province. According to the IUCN Red List criteria for assessing species threat levels under two dispersal assumptions (no dispersal and full dispersal), we evaluated the conservation status of all Theaceae species by calculating loss of suitable habitat under future climate scenarios. We predicted that nine additional species will become threatened due to climate change in the future; one species will be classified as critically endangered (CR), two as endangered (EN), and six as vulnerable (VU). Given their extinction risks associated with climate change, we recommended that these species be added to the Red List. Our investigation of migration patterns revealed regional differences in the number of emigrant, immigrant, and persistent species, indicating the need for targeted conservation strategies. Regions containing numerous emigrants are concentrated in Northern Taiwan and coastal regions of Zhejiang and Fujian provinces, while regions containing numerous immigrants include central Sichuan Province, the southeastern Tibet Autonomous Region, southwest Yunnan Province, northwest Sichuan Province, and the junction of Guangxi and Hunan provinces. Lastly, regions containing persistent species are widely distributed in southern China. Importantly, regions with high species turnover are located on the northern border of the entire Theaceae species distribution ranges owing to upwards migration; these regions are considered most sensitive to climate change and conservation planning should therefore be prioritized here. This study will contribute valuable information for reducing the negative impacts of climate change on Theaceae species, which will ultimately improve biodiversity conservation efficiency.
山茶科是一个具有重要经济价值的被子植物科，广泛分布于亚洲的热带和亚热带森林中。在中国，山茶科的物种丰富度和特有性特别高，约占全球属总数的75%，种总数的46%。因此，预测山茶科物种对气候变化的响应至关重要。在本研究中，我们收集了中国200种野生山茶科物种的分布数据，并通过物种分布模型（SDM）预测了它们在当前和未来气候条件下的分布格局。我们发现，中国东南部和海南岛的山茶科物种丰富度最高，在福建省达到最高值（137种）。根据国际自然保护联盟（IUCN）红色名录评估物种威胁水平的标准，在两种扩散假设（无扩散和完全扩散）下，我们通过计算未来气候情景下适宜栖息地的丧失情况，评估了所有山茶科物种的保护状况。我们预测，未来由于气候变化将有另外9个物种受到威胁；1个物种将被列为极危（CR），2个为濒危（EN），6个为易危（VU）。鉴于它们与气候变化相关的灭绝风险，我们建议将这些物种列入红色名录。我们对迁移模式的调查揭示了迁出、迁入和留存物种数量的区域差异，这表明需要有针对性的保护策略。包含大量迁出物种的区域集中在台湾北部以及浙江和福建沿海地区，而包含大量迁入物种的区域包括四川省中部、西藏自治区东南部、云南省西南部、四川省西北部以及广西和湖南交界处。最后，包含留存物种的区域广泛分布于中国南部。重要的是，由于向上迁移，物种周转率高的区域位于整个山茶科物种分布范围的北界；这些区域被认为对气候变化最为敏感，因此保护规划应在此处优先进行。本研究将为减少气候变化对山茶科物种的负面影响提供有价值的信息，最终提高生物多样性保护效率。
