School of Mathematics and Statistics, Ningxia University, Yinchuan, Ningxia 750021, China.
Shenzhen Institutes of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenzhen, Guangdong 518000, China; College of Mathematics and Physics, Xinjiang Agriculture University Urumqi, Xinjiang 830052, China.
J Infect Public Health. 2020 Jun;13(6):849-855. doi: 10.1016/j.jiph.2020.05.014. Epub 2020 May 22.
The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) firstly announced in Wuhan of Hubei province, China is rapidly spreading to all the other 31 provinces of China and to more than 140 countries. Quarantine strategies play the key role on the disease controlling and public health in the world with this pandemic of the COVID-19 defined by the World Health Organization.
In this study, a SEIRQ epidemic model was developed to explore the dynamic changes of COVID-19 in Wuhan and mainland China, from January 27, 2020 to March 5, 2020. Moreover, to investigate the effects of the quarantine strategies, two perspectives are employed from the different quarantine magnitudes and quarantine time points.
The major results suggest that the COVID-19 variations are well captured by the epidemic model with very high accuracy in the cumulative confirmed cases, confirmed cases, cumulative recovered cases and cumulative death cases. The quarantine magnitudes in the susceptible individuals play larger roles on the disease control than the impacts of the quarantines of the exposed individuals and infectious individuals. For the quarantine time points, it shows that the early quarantine strategy is significantly important for the disease controlling. The time delayed quarantining will seriously increase the COVID-19 disease patients and prolongs the days of the disease extinction.
Our model can simulate and predict the COVID-19 variations and the quarantine strategies are important for the disease controlling, especially at the early period of the disease outbreak. These conclusions provide important scientific information for the government policymaker in the disease control strategies.
2019 年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）最初在中国湖北省武汉市宣布，正在迅速传播到中国其他 31 个省以及 140 多个国家。世界卫生组织将这种 COVID-19 大流行定义为，检疫策略在控制疾病和公共卫生方面发挥着关键作用。
本研究建立了一个 SEIRQ 传染病模型，以探索 2020 年 1 月 27 日至 2020 年 3 月 5 日期间 COVID-19 在武汉和中国大陆的动态变化。此外，为了研究检疫策略的影响，从不同的检疫规模和检疫时间点两个角度进行了探讨。
主要结果表明，传染病模型能够很好地捕捉 COVID-19 的变化，在累计确诊病例、确诊病例、累计治愈病例和累计死亡病例方面具有非常高的准确性。易感人群中的检疫规模对疾病控制的作用大于对暴露人群和感染人群的检疫影响。就检疫时间点而言，表明早期的检疫策略对疾病控制具有重要意义。延迟检疫将严重增加 COVID-19 疾病患者数量，并延长疾病灭绝的天数。
我们的模型可以模拟和预测 COVID-19 的变化，检疫策略对于疾病控制非常重要，特别是在疾病爆发的早期阶段。这些结论为政府决策者在疾病控制策略方面提供了重要的科学信息。
