Capability Systems Centre, University of New South Wales, Australian Defence Force Academy, Canberra, ACT, Australia; Institute for Water Futures, Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia.
Institute for Water Futures, Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia; CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra, ACT, Australia.
Sci Total Environ. 2020 Aug 10;729:138393. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138393. Epub 2020 Apr 11.
This paper reviews the latest research on scenarios including the processes and products for socio-environmental systems (SES) analysis, modeling and decision making. A group of scenario researchers and practitioners participated in a workshop to discuss consolidation of existing research on the development and use of scenario analysis in exploring and understanding the interplay between human and environmental systems. This paper presents an extended overview of the workshop discussions and follow-up review work. It is structured around the essential challenges that are crucial to progress support of decision making and learning with respect to our highly uncertain socio-environmental futures. It identifies a practical research agenda where challenges are grouped according to the process stage at which they are most significant: before, during, and after the creation of the scenarios as products. These challenges for SES include: enhancing the role of stakeholder and public engagement in the co-development of scenarios, linking scenarios across multiple geographical, sectoral and temporal scales, improving the links between the qualitative and quantitative aspects of scenario analysis, addressing uncertainties especially surprise, addressing scenario diversity and their consistency together, communicating scenarios including visualization methods, and linking scenarios to decision making.
本文综述了社会-环境系统（SES）分析、建模和决策的情景研究的最新进展。一组情景研究人员和实践者参加了一次研讨会，讨论了整合情景分析在探索和理解人类与环境系统相互作用方面的开发和应用的现有研究。本文介绍了研讨会讨论和后续综述工作的扩展概述。它围绕着对于支持与我们高度不确定的社会-环境未来相关的决策制定和学习至关重要的基本挑战进行构建。它确定了一个实际的研究议程，根据情景作为产品的创建过程中的重要程度，将挑战分为以下几类：在情景的共同开发之前、期间和之后。SES 面临的挑战包括：增强利益相关者和公众在情景共同开发中的作用，在多个地理、部门和时间尺度上链接情景，改进情景分析的定性和定量方面之间的联系，解决不确定性，特别是意外情况，解决情景多样性及其一致性，包括可视化方法在内的情景沟通，以及将情景与决策联系起来。
