Liu Junyou, Zheng Bohong
School of Architecture and Art, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan, China.
PLoS One. 2025 Aug 8;20(8):e0329937. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0329937. eCollection 2025.
Many countries worldwide have committed to reduce their carbon dioxide emissions in response to climate change. In China, cities are striving to achieve their 2030 peak carbon emission targets. In this study, we developed a scenario-based Kaya identity analysis methodology to explore the notable uncertainty inherent in future carbon dioxide emissions. Using the case of Changning City, Hunan province, China, we found that under the business-as-usual scenario, the city's carbon dioxide emissions of 3,839.1 thousand tons in 2022 are projected to reach 4,674.3 thousand tons in 2031. Changning is unlikely to achieve its carbon peak target. In a more challenging future scenario of rapid economic growth, carbon dioxide emissions are expected to rise from 3,839.1 thousand tons in 2022-5,447 thousand tons in 2031. Under the environmentalist scenario, Changning could achieve its carbon peak target before 2030 (carbon dioxide emissions would peak at 3,922 thousand tons in 2028). Under a slowed economic development scenario, Changning could also achieve a carbon peak in 2028 (carbon dioxide emissions would peak at 3,980.2 thousand tons in 2028). However, without sufficient energy-saving and emissions-reduction measures, annual increases in carbon dioxide emissions are likely to resurge during periods of rapid economic development.
世界上许多国家都致力于减少二氧化碳排放以应对气候变化。在中国，各城市正在努力实现其2030年碳排放峰值目标。在本研究中，我们开发了一种基于情景的卡亚恒等式分析方法，以探索未来二氧化碳排放中固有的显著不确定性。以中国湖南省常宁市为例，我们发现，在照常情景下，该市2022年383.91万吨的二氧化碳排放量预计到2031年将达到467.43万吨。常宁不太可能实现其碳峰值目标。在经济快速增长这种更具挑战性的未来情景下，二氧化碳排放量预计将从2022年的383.91万吨升至2031年的544.7万吨。在环保主义情景下，常宁可以在2030年前实现其碳峰值目标（二氧化碳排放量将在2028年达到峰值392.2万吨）。在经济发展放缓情景下，常宁也可以在2028年实现碳峰值（二氧化碳排放量将在2028年达到峰值398.02万吨）。然而，如果没有足够的节能减排措施，在经济快速发展时期，二氧化碳排放量的年增幅可能会再次回升。
