Marcial Elaine Coutinho, Schneider Eduardo Rodrigues, Pio Marcello José, Leal Rodrigo Mendes, Fronzaglia Thomaz, Gimene Márcio
Foresight Research Group and Studies (NEP-UCB) Catholic University of Brasilia, Câmpus Taguatinga, QS 07 - Lote 01 - EPCT - Taguatinga Brasília/DF - CEP: 71966-700, Brazil.
NEP-UCB & INSPRO, Rua Pará, 76, sala 12c., Consolação, São Paulo, SP 01243-020, Brazil.
Futures. 2022 Sep;142:102996. doi: 10.1016/j.futures.2022.102996. Epub 2022 Jul 14.
At the beginning of 2020, feelings of fear and uncertainty spread throughout the world after the novel coronavirus rapid propagation. The world was not ready to face such a situation. Countries implemented emergency measures to contain it, which included social distancing and shutting down the economy. Social and economic impacts were unpredictable. This manuscript aims to present the application of a remote scenario planning method that identifies threats, opportunities, and subsidies to a strategic evaluation in a short term. The main results identified 15 key trends, four critical uncertainties, four scenarios, ten opportunities, and 13 threats. They were debated and presented to some Brazilian organizations' decision-makers to help develop strategies to curb the aftermath of COVID-19. Our findings show that it is possible to use this agile method to build consistent and coherent scenarios that support the decision-making process. Part of the experts said that participating in the process was essential to comprehend it better. The process also contributed to their learning process and their organization on anticipatory strategy thinking concerning possible future. They agree that the scenarios were relevant, defiant, and plausible and incorporated meaningful events and real challenges to their organizations' strategy formulation or decision-making.
2020年初，新型冠状病毒迅速传播后，恐惧和不确定性情绪在全球蔓延。世界尚未准备好面对这种情况。各国实施了包括社交距离和关闭经济在内的紧急措施来遏制疫情。社会和经济影响难以预测。本手稿旨在介绍一种远程情景规划方法的应用，该方法可在短期内识别对战略评估的威胁、机遇和补贴。主要结果确定了15个关键趋势、4个关键不确定性因素、4种情景、10个机遇和13个威胁。这些结果经过讨论后提交给了一些巴西组织的决策者，以帮助制定应对新冠疫情后果的策略。我们的研究结果表明，使用这种敏捷方法构建一致且连贯的情景以支持决策过程是可行的。部分专家表示，参与该过程对于更好地理解它至关重要。该过程也有助于他们的学习过程以及他们所在组织关于对可能的未来进行前瞻性战略思考。他们一致认为，这些情景具有相关性、挑战性且合理，并且包含了对其组织战略制定或决策有意义的事件和实际挑战。
