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支持和反对疫苗接种观点的在线竞争。

The online competition between pro- and anti-vaccination views.

机构信息

Physics Department, George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA.

Institute for Data, Democracy and Politics, George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA.

出版信息

Nature. 2020 Jun;582(7811):230-233. doi: 10.1038/s41586-020-2281-1. Epub 2020 May 13.

Abstract

Distrust in scientific expertise is dangerous. Opposition to vaccination with a future vaccine against SARS-CoV-2, the causal agent of COVID-19, for example, could amplify outbreaks, as happened for measles in 2019. Homemade remedies and falsehoods are being shared widely on the Internet, as well as dismissals of expert advice. There is a lack of understanding about how this distrust evolves at the system level. Here we provide a map of the contention surrounding vaccines that has emerged from the global pool of around three billion Facebook users. Its core reveals a multi-sided landscape of unprecedented intricacy that involves nearly 100 million individuals partitioned into highly dynamic, interconnected clusters across cities, countries, continents and languages. Although smaller in overall size, anti-vaccination clusters manage to become highly entangled with undecided clusters in the main online network, whereas pro-vaccination clusters are more peripheral. Our theoretical framework reproduces the recent explosive growth in anti-vaccination views, and predicts that these views will dominate in a decade. Insights provided by this framework can inform new policies and approaches to interrupt this shift to negative views. Our results challenge the conventional thinking about undecided individuals in issues of contention surrounding health, shed light on other issues of contention such as climate change, and highlight the key role of network cluster dynamics in multi-species ecologies.

摘要

对科学专业知识的不信任是危险的。例如,对未来针对 COVID-19 病原体 SARS-CoV-2 的疫苗的接种持反对态度,可能会加剧疫情爆发,就像 2019 年麻疹那样。关于如何在系统层面上理解这种不信任的演变,目前我们还知之甚少。在本文中,我们提供了一个由大约 30 亿脸书用户组成的全球用户群中涌现出的疫苗争议图谱。其核心揭示了一个前所未有的复杂的多方面景观,涉及近 1 亿个人,他们在城市、国家、大陆和语言之间分为高度动态、相互关联的集群。尽管在整体规模上较小,但反疫苗接种集群设法与主要在线网络中的未决集群高度纠缠在一起,而支持疫苗接种的集群则更加边缘化。我们的理论框架再现了最近反疫苗观点的爆炸式增长,并预测这些观点将在十年内占据主导地位。该框架提供的见解可以为中断这种向负面观点的转变提供新的政策和方法。我们的研究结果挑战了关于健康争议问题中未决者的传统思维,揭示了气候变化等其他争议问题,并强调了网络集群动态在多物种生态系统中的关键作用。

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