State Key Laboratory of Organ Failure Research, National Clinical Research Center for Kidney Disease, Guangzhou, China.
Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China.
Nat Med. 2020 Aug;26(8):1193-1195. doi: 10.1038/s41591-020-0949-6. Epub 2020 Jun 5.
Detection of asymptomatic or subclinical novel human coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 infection is critical for understanding the overall prevalence and infection potential of COVID-19. To estimate the cumulative prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in China, we evaluated the host serologic response, measured by the levels of immunoglobulins M and G in 17,368 individuals, in the city of Wuhan, the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic in China, and geographic regions in the country, during the period from 9 March 2020 to 10 April 2020. In our cohorts, the seropositivity in Wuhan varied between 3.2% and 3.8% in different subcohorts. Seroposivity progressively decreased in other cities as the distance to the epicenter increased. Patients who visited a hospital for maintenance hemodialysis and healthcare workers also had a higher seroprevalence of 3.3% (51 of 1,542, 2.5-4.3%, 95% confidence interval (CI)) and 1.8% (81 of 4,384, 1.5-2.3%, 95% CI), respectively. More studies are needed to determine whether these results are generalizable to other populations and geographic locations, as well as to determine at what rate seroprevalence is increasing with the progress of the COVID-19 pandemic. Serologic surveillance has the potential to provide a more faithful cumulative viral attack rate for the first season of this novel SARS-CoV-2 infection.
检测无症状或亚临床新型人类冠状病毒 SARS-CoV-2 感染对于了解 COVID-19 的总体流行率和感染潜力至关重要。为了估计 SARS-CoV-2 在中国的累积感染率,我们评估了中国 COVID-19 大流行中心武汉市以及中国其他地区 17368 个人的宿主血清学反应,通过测量免疫球蛋白 M 和 G 的水平来衡量。在我们的队列中,武汉不同亚组的血清阳性率在 3.2%至 3.8%之间变化。随着与震中距离的增加,其他城市的血清阳性率逐渐降低。因维持性血液透析而就诊的患者和医护人员的血清阳性率也较高,分别为 3.3%(51 例/1542 例,2.5-4.3%,95%置信区间[CI])和 1.8%(81 例/4384 例,1.5-2.3%,95%CI)。需要进一步的研究来确定这些结果是否适用于其他人群和地理位置,以及确定血清阳性率以何种速度随着 COVID-19 大流行的进展而增加。血清学监测有可能为这种新型 SARS-CoV-2 感染的第一个季节提供更真实的累积病毒攻击率。