Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Oil and Gas Distribution Technology, China University of Petroleum-Beijing, Fuxue Road No. 18, Changping District, Beijing, 102249, China.
Center for Spatial Information Science, The University of Tokyo, 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa, Chiba, 277-8563, Japan.
J Environ Manage. 2020 Sep 15;270:110750. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110750. Epub 2020 Jun 5.
Recent years, the energy consumption and carbon emissions released from the residential sector have increased rapidly due to the improvement of living standards. Japan, as one of the most developed countries worldwide, is found to be the fourth largest CO2 emitter in the world. Meanwhile, Japan is currently promoting social electrification from varied aspects. And this action further brings the household residential consumption to the vital place for overall energy conservation and emission reduction plans. Although electricity consumption and prediction analysis have been widely discussed. However, previous studies mainly focused on the estimation and analysis of energy consumption at the national level, without enough discussion from prefecture-level insights. To bridge this knowledge gap, this study established a factor-based bottom-up model to estimate the electricity consumption and carbon emissions during the 2015-2040 periods in the Japanese residential sector, considering the prefectural characteristics including per capita gross domestic product, population size, household size, residential floor space area, lifestyle, weather condition, and transition effect of appliance in the future. Nine scenarios that combine three levels of household size and three levels of growth of per capita gross domestic product are taken into account to estimate the electricity consumption for space heating and cooling, water heating, cooking, and appliances. Results indicate that the total residential electricity consumption will reach a peak during 2020s. The total carbon emissions will keep decreasing by 51.14-72.16 Mt between 2015 and 2040. Based on the results of this paper, policy recommendations are given for the Japanese government.
近年来，随着生活水平的提高，住宅部门的能源消耗和碳排放迅速增加。日本作为世界上最发达的国家之一，被发现是世界上第四大二氧化碳排放国。与此同时，日本目前正在从各个方面推进社会电气化。这一行动进一步将家庭住宅消费置于整体节能减碳计划的重要位置。尽管已经广泛讨论了电力消耗和预测分析。然而，以前的研究主要集中在国家层面的能源消耗估计和分析上，没有从县级的角度进行足够的讨论。为了弥补这一知识差距，本研究建立了一个基于因素的自下而上模型，以估算日本住宅部门在 2015-2040 年期间的电力消耗和碳排放，考虑到包括人均国内生产总值、人口规模、家庭规模、住宅建筑面积、生活方式、天气条件和未来电器转型效应在内的县级特征。考虑了三种家庭规模水平和三种人均国内生产总值增长水平的九个情景，以估算空间供暖和制冷、水加热、烹饪和电器的用电量。结果表明，住宅总用电量将在 2020 年代达到峰值。2015 年至 2040 年期间，总碳排放量将减少 51.14-72.16 Mt。基于本文的结果，为日本政府提出了政策建议。
