Wadud Zia
Institute for Transport Studies and Centre for Integrated Energy Research, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK.
Transp Res Part A Policy Pract. 2020 Jul;137:301-312. doi: 10.1016/j.tra.2020.05.002. Epub 2020 Jun 2.
The impact of app-based e-hailing or ridesourcing services on various transport metrics is an area of active research, and research so far have focused on the car-based (or four-wheeled vehicle based) services only. In many cities in the developing and emerging countries, motorcycle-based passenger e-hailing services have become very popular in the last few years, but the implications of these have not been studied before. This study investigates the effects of motorcycle-hailing apps in Dhaka - a megacity in Bangladesh - on the size of its motorcycle fleet. We employ segmented multiple regression on timeseries data to show that there was a statistically significant increase in motorcycle ownership in Dhaka as a result of the motorcycle-hailing services. The findings were also supported by a visual intervention analysis. By the end of 2018, there were 7.45% more motorcycles in Dhaka than there would have been if these app-based e-hailing services were not available. We conclude with potential implications of these increases in motorcycle numbers and future research directions.
基于应用程序的电子打车或拼车服务对各种交通指标的影响是一个正在积极研究的领域，迄今为止的研究仅聚焦于基于汽车（或四轮车辆）的服务。在发展中国家和新兴国家的许多城市，基于摩托车的客运电子打车服务在过去几年中变得非常流行，但此前尚未对其影响进行过研究。本研究调查了孟加拉国大城市达卡的摩托车打车应用程序对其摩托车保有量的影响。我们对时间序列数据进行分段多元回归，以表明由于摩托车打车服务，达卡的摩托车保有量在统计上有显著增加。视觉干预分析也支持了这些发现。到2018年底，达卡的摩托车数量比没有这些基于应用程序的电子打车服务时多出7.45%。我们最后总结了摩托车数量增加的潜在影响以及未来的研究方向。
