A Cost Projection of Scheduled Physician Home-Visit Services in Japan: 2014 to 2064.

This study predicts the volume and spending on scheduled physician home-visit (SPHV) services over five decades. This model-based evaluation study considered the following scenarios in Japan: (1) change in services-delivery; (2) technology-assisted services; (3) a combination of (1) and (2). The model predicted that the volume and spending on SPHV will increase as the population and working-age population decline. Scenario analysis indicated that a combined strategy could reduce the relative rate of spending to less than 2.00 in 2064, indicating that home health-care service reforms through changes in services-delivery and cost-reduction through technology-assisted services are promising in countries facing aging population.