Atalan Abdulkadir
Department of Industrial Engineering, Gaziantep Islam, Science and Technology University, 27010, Gaziantep, Turkey.
Ann Med Surg (Lond). 2020 Jun 14;56:38-42. doi: 10.1016/j.amsu.2020.06.010. eCollection 2020 Aug.
COVID-19's daily increasing cases and deaths have led to worldwide lockdown, quarantine and some restrictions. This study aims to analyze the effect of lockdown days on the spread of coronavirus in countries. COVID-19 cases and lockdown days data were collected for 49 countries that implemented the lockdown between certain dates (without interruption). The correlation tests were used for data analysis based on unconstrained (normal) and constrained (Tukey-lambda). The lockdown days was significantly correlated with COVID-19 pandemic based on unconstrained (r = -0.9126, F-ratio = 6.1654; t-ratio = 2.40; prob > .0203 with 49 observations) and based on Tukey-lambda (r = 0.7402, λ = 0.14). The lockdown, one of the social isolation restrictions, has been observed to prevent the COVID-19 pandemic, and showed that the spread of the virus can be significantly reduced by this preventive restriction in this study. This study offers initial evidence that the COVID-19 pandemic can be suppressed by a lockdown. The application of lockdown by governments is also thought to be effective on psychology, environment and economy besides having impact on Covid-19.
新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）每日新增病例和死亡人数不断增加，导致全球范围内实施封锁、隔离及一些限制措施。本研究旨在分析封锁天数对各国冠状病毒传播的影响。收集了49个在特定日期之间实施封锁（无中断）的国家的COVID-19病例和封锁天数数据。基于无约束（正态）和约束（图基-拉姆达）方法，使用相关性检验进行数据分析。基于无约束方法（r = -0.9126，F比率 = 6.1654；t比率 = 2.40；49个观测值时概率 > 0.0203）和图基-拉姆达方法（r = 0.7402，λ = 0.14），封锁天数与COVID-19大流行显著相关。研究发现，作为社会隔离限制措施之一的封锁能够预防COVID-19大流行，且在本研究中表明这种预防性限制可显著降低病毒传播。本研究提供了初步证据，证明封锁可抑制COVID-19大流行。政府实施封锁除了对COVID-19有影响外，在心理、环境和经济方面也被认为是有效的。
