Poleward expansion of common snook Centropomus undecimalis in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and future research needs.

Globally, rising temperatures have resulted in numerous examples of poleward shifts in species distribution patterns with accompanying changes in community structure and ecosystem processes. In the Gulf of Mexico, higher mean temperatures and less frequent winter freezes have led to the expansion of tropics-associated marine organisms. Our objectives were to quantify changing environmental conditions and the poleward expansion of the common snook Centropomus undecimalis into the Cedar Keys area of Florida, USA (29 deg N). The snook is an economically and recreationally important sport fish found from southern Brazil to south Florida. Cedar Key and the Lower Suwannee River are north of the snook's historically documented range, likely due to lethal water temperatures during winter. Using data from a long-term monitoring program, we report an increase in catches of snook in this area since 2007. The spatial and temporal expansion of the species began with adult fish in 2007. By 2018, snook of all sizes were found in the region, and we found strong evidence of local reproduction during 2016-2018. The locations of nursery habitat and winter thermal refuges (e.g., freshwater springs) need to be identified and have implications for land-use policy and minimum-flow regulations for rivers. The arrival of the snook in the northern Gulf of Mexico could affect food web ecology and habitat interactions among estuarine predators, and future studies should evaluate snook's food habits and competitive interactions with resident fishes in this expanded range. Our study provides an example of how species range expansions due to changing temperatures should result in new research priorities to evaluate impacts of climate change on coastal systems.