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碳排放交易是否减少了中国的 PM 污染?

Has Carbon Emissions Trading Reduced PM in China?

机构信息

Business School, Hunan University, Changsha 410082, China.

Center for Resource and Environmental Management, Hunan University, Changsha 410082, China.

出版信息

Environ Sci Technol. 2021 May 18;55(10):6631-6643. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.1c00248. Epub 2021 May 7.

Abstract

China today has an urgent need to develop low-carbon policies that also address local air pollution. This study uses a difference-in-differences model to estimate the extent to which China's Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), which directly addresses CO emissions, has also generated cobenefits by reducing PM. Using monthly PM concentration and weather data for 297 Chinese cities from January 2005 to December 2017, we find that (1) China's ETS has reduced PM concentrations by 4.8%, and this reduction effect is strongest in summer. The results are confirmed by robustness tests including propensity score matching, mahalanobis distance matching, two placebo tests, and controlling atmospheric policies. (2) The ETS pilots have positive spillovers on neighboring nonpilot cities within 300 km of the pilot cites, especially for those downwind neighboring nonpilot cities, and the ETS's cobenefits are primarily a result of firms adopting abatement activities and adjusting industrial structure. (3) The cobenefits of China's ETS pilots are greater in regions with larger carbon trading volume and higher carbon trading price. (4) The reduction in PM concentration caused by China's ETS may have avoided 23,363 deaths and saved $41.38 billion annually in GDP.

摘要

如今,中国迫切需要制定既能应对低碳问题又能解决本地空气污染的政策。本研究采用双重差分模型,以评估中国直接针对二氧化碳排放的排放交易体系(ETS)在减少细颗粒物(PM)方面是否也产生了协同效益。我们利用 2005 年 1 月至 2017 年 12 月期间 297 个中国城市的每月 PM 浓度和气象数据,发现:(1)中国的 ETS 使 PM 浓度降低了 4.8%,且这一降低效果在夏季最为显著。包括倾向得分匹配、马氏距离匹配、两个安慰剂测试和大气政策控制在内的稳健性检验结果也证实了这一结论。(2)ETS 试点对试点城市 300 公里范围内的周边非试点城市产生了积极的溢出效应,特别是下风方向的周边非试点城市,ETS 的协同效益主要归因于企业采取减排活动和调整产业结构。(3)在中国 ETS 试点中,碳交易量和碳交易价格较高的地区协同效益更大。(4)中国 ETS 减少的 PM 浓度每年可能避免了 23363 人死亡,并使 GDP 每年增加 413.8 亿美元。

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