Naik Shanoja, Adamic Peter
Laurentian University, Sudbury, Canada.
Eur Actuar J. 2020;10(1):73-90. doi: 10.1007/s13385-020-00229-y. Epub 2020 Apr 27.
In many circumstances, the increase in life expectancy when certain causes of death are eliminated is sought. These calculations are typically based on the assumption that the causes in question are simply omitted, which is equivalent to the causes being taken out of consideration, from the outset, with certainty. In this paper, we propose models whereby probability distributions for the cures of specific causes of death over time can be incorporated so as to more accurately predict the increase in life expectancy that would ensue. The theoretical results are applied to a real data set involving Diabetes and HIV-related deaths from Denver, Colorado, United States of America, between the years 1990 and 2015 inclusive.
在许多情况下，人们试图计算消除某些死因后预期寿命的增加情况。这些计算通常基于这样一种假设，即所讨论的死因被简单地忽略了，这等同于从一开始就确定性地将这些死因排除在考虑范围之外。在本文中，我们提出了一些模型，通过纳入特定死因随时间治愈的概率分布，从而更准确地预测随之而来的预期寿命的增加。理论结果应用于一个真实数据集，该数据集涉及1990年至2015年（含）期间美国科罗拉多州丹佛市与糖尿病和艾滋病毒相关的死亡情况。
