Department of Biology, University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
Department of Environment and Health, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy.
Mar Pollut Bull. 2020 Aug;157:111318. doi: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2020.111318. Epub 2020 May 31.
Profiling bathing waters supported by Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is key to the WHO's recommendations for the 2020/2021 revision of the European Bathing Water Directive. We developed an area-specific QMRA model on four pathogens, using fecal indicator concentrations (E. coli, enterococci) for calculating pathogen loads. The predominance of illness was found to be attributable to Human Adenovirus, followed by Salmonella, Vibrio, and Norovirus. Overall, the cumulative illness risk showed a median of around 1 case/10000 exposures. The risk estimates were strongly influenced by the indicators that were used, suggesting the need for a more detailed investigation of the different sources of fecal contamination. Area-specific threshold values for fecal indicators were estimated on a risk-basis by modelling the cumulative risk against E. coli and enterococci concentrations. To improve bathing waters assessment, we suggest considering source apportionment, locally estimating of pathogen/indicator ratios, and calculating site-specific indicators thresholds based on risk assessment.
基于定量微生物风险评估（QMRA）对浴场水质进行分析是世界卫生组织（WHO）对 2020/2021 年版《欧盟浴场水指令》进行修订的建议的关键。我们针对四种病原体开发了一种特定于区域的 QMRA 模型，使用粪便指示物浓度（大肠杆菌、肠球菌）来计算病原体负荷。结果发现，疾病的主要病原体是人类腺病毒，其次是沙门氏菌、弧菌和诺如病毒。总体而言，累积疾病风险的中位数约为每 10000 次暴露 1 例。风险估计受所使用指标的强烈影响，这表明需要更详细地调查不同的粪便污染来源。通过对大肠杆菌和肠球菌浓度的累积风险进行建模，基于风险对粪便指示物进行了特定区域的阈值估计。为了改进浴场水质评估，我们建议考虑源分配、在当地估计病原体/指示物比值，并基于风险评估计算特定地点的指示物阈值。
