U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Exposure Research Laboratory, Cincinnati, Ohio 45268, USA.
Environ Sci Technol. 2010 Apr 1;44(7):2286-91. doi: 10.1021/es903523q.
The risk of gastrointestinal illness to swimmers from fresh sewage and non-sewage fecal sources at recreational beaches was predicted using quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). The QMRA estimated the probability of illness for accidental ingestion of recreational water with a specific concentration of fecal indicator bacteria, here the geometric mean enterococci limit of 35 cfu 100 mL(-1), from either a mixture of sources or an individual source. Using seagulls as an example non-sewage fecal source, the predicted median probability of illness was less than the illness benchmark of 0.01. When the fecal source was changed to poorly treated sewage, a relativity small difference between the median probability of illness and the illness benchmark was predicted. For waters impacted by a mixture of seagull and sewage waste, the dominant source of fecal indicator was not always the predicted dominant source of risk.
采用定量微生物风险评估（QMRA）预测了游泳者因休闲海滩上的新鲜污水和非污水粪便源而患胃肠道疾病的风险。QMRA 估计了在偶然摄入特定浓度粪便指示菌（此处为肠球菌几何平均值限值 35 cfu 100 mL(-1)) 的情况下，因摄入休闲水中而患病的概率，该指示菌的来源可以是混合来源，也可以是单一来源。以海鸥为例，非污水粪便源被用作非污水粪便源，预计患病的中位数概率低于患病基准值 0.01。当粪便源改为处理不佳的污水时，预计患病的中位数概率与患病基准值之间的差异相对较小。对于受到海鸥和污水废物混合物影响的水域，粪便指示物的主要来源并不总是预测的主要风险来源。
