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英国生物库社区队列中预测 COVID-19 和死亡率的预先存在的合并症。

Preexisting Comorbidities Predicting COVID-19 and Mortality in the UK Biobank Community Cohort.

机构信息

Epidemiology and Public Health Group, University of Exeter Medical School, UK.

Department of Healthcare for Older People, Royal Devon and Exeter Hospital, UK.

出版信息

J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci. 2020 Oct 15;75(11):2224-2230. doi: 10.1093/gerona/glaa183.

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Hospitalized COVID-19 patients tend to be older and frequently have hypertension, diabetes, or coronary heart disease, but whether these comorbidities are true risk factors (ie, more common than in the general older population) is unclear. We estimated associations between preexisting diagnoses and hospitalized COVID-19 alone or with mortality, in a large community cohort.

METHODS

UK Biobank (England) participants with baseline assessment 2006-2010, followed in hospital discharge records to 2017 and death records to 2020. Demographic and preexisting common diagnoses association tested with hospitalized laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 (March 16 to April 26, 2020), alone or with mortality, in logistic models.

RESULTS

Of 269 070 participants aged older than 65, 507 (0.2%) became COVID-19 hospital inpatients, of which 141 (27.8%) died. Common comorbidities in hospitalized inpatients were hypertension (59.6%), history of fall or fragility fractures (29.4%), coronary heart disease (21.5%), type 2 diabetes (type 2, 19. 9%), and asthma (17.6%). However, in models adjusted for comorbidities, age group, sex, ethnicity, and education, preexisting diagnoses of dementia, type 2 diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, pneumonia, depression, atrial fibrillation, and hypertension emerged as independent risk factors for COVID-19 hospitalization, the first 5 remaining statistically significant for related mortality. Chronic kidney disease and asthma were risk factors for COVID-19 hospitalization in women but not men.

CONCLUSIONS

There are specific high-risk preexisting comorbidities for COVID-19 hospitalization and related deaths in community-based older men and women. These results do not support simple age-based targeting of the older population to prevent severe COVID-19 infections.

摘要

背景

住院的 COVID-19 患者往往年龄较大,且常患有高血压、糖尿病或冠心病,但这些合并症是否为真正的危险因素(即比一般老年人群更为常见)尚不清楚。我们在一个大型社区队列中,评估了既往诊断与住院 COVID-19 及其与死亡率的相关性。

方法

英国生物库(英格兰)的参与者在 2006 年至 2010 年进行了基线评估,随访至 2017 年的医院出院记录和 2020 年的死亡记录。使用逻辑回归模型,检验了人口统计学和既往常见诊断与 2020 年 3 月 16 日至 4 月 26 日期间确诊的住院 COVID-19(单独或合并死亡率)之间的相关性。

结果

在 269070 名年龄大于 65 岁的参与者中,有 507 人(0.2%)成为 COVID-19 住院患者,其中 141 人(27.8%)死亡。住院患者的常见合并症包括高血压(59.6%)、跌倒或脆性骨折史(29.4%)、冠心病(21.5%)、2 型糖尿病(2 型,19.9%)和哮喘(17.6%)。然而,在调整了合并症、年龄组、性别、种族和教育程度等因素的模型中,痴呆、2 型糖尿病、慢性阻塞性肺疾病、肺炎、抑郁症、心房颤动和高血压的既往诊断是 COVID-19 住院的独立危险因素,前 5 项与相关死亡率仍具有统计学意义。慢性肾脏病和哮喘是女性而非男性 COVID-19 住院的危险因素。

结论

在基于社区的老年男女中,存在 COVID-19 住院和相关死亡的特定高危既往合并症。这些结果不支持基于年龄对老年人群进行简单的靶向干预以预防严重的 COVID-19 感染。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/cea8/7566392/d2e09f18e0ee/glaa183_fig1.jpg

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