Tønnessen Marianne
Research Department, Statistics Norway, PO Box 8131 Dep, 0033 Oslo, Norway.
Department of Sociology, Stockholm University, SUDA, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden.
Eur J Popul. 2019 Nov 6;36(3):547-573. doi: 10.1007/s10680-019-09541-0. eCollection 2020 Jul.
In many Western countries, the total fertility rate (TFR) of immigrant women has declined over the last decades. This paper proposes two methods for investigating such changes in the aggregate immigrant fertility level: what-if scenarios and a formal decomposition. Both methods disentangle the effect of changed composition-by origin area and duration of stay-from the effect of changed fertility within subgroups. The methods are applied to data from Norway, where immigrant TFR declined from 2.6 births per women in 2000 to below 2.0 in 2017. The results show that this decline is not due to successful integration, nor changed composition of immigrant women by origin area or duration of stay. A main reason for the decline is found among newly arrived immigrant women, particularly from Asia. They have a considerably lower fertility now than what the newly arrived had 15-20 years ago. After investigating several possible reasons for the TFR decline among the newly arrived, decreased fertility in origin areas is suggested as a key driver.
在许多西方国家，过去几十年里移民女性的总生育率（TFR）有所下降。本文提出了两种调查移民总体生育水平变化的方法：假设情景分析法和形式分解法。这两种方法都将按原籍地区和停留时间划分的构成变化的影响与亚组内生育率变化的影响区分开来。这些方法应用于挪威的数据，在挪威，移民总生育率从2000年的每名妇女2.6个孩子下降到2017年的2.0以下。结果表明，这种下降并非由于成功融入，也不是由于移民女性按原籍地区或停留时间划分的构成变化。下降的一个主要原因在于新抵达的移民女性，尤其是来自亚洲的。她们现在的生育率比15至20年前新抵达者的生育率低得多。在调查了新抵达者总生育率下降的几个可能原因后，原籍地区生育率下降被认为是一个关键驱动因素。
