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2020年老年人癌症模式的全球负担及到2040年的预测

Global burden of cancer pattern in 2020 & prediction to 2040 among older adults.

作者信息

Kalita Manoj, M Devaraja, Saha Indranil, Chakrabarti Amit

机构信息

ICMR-Centre for Ageing & Mental Health, Kolkata, West Bengal, India.

出版信息

Indian J Med Res. 2024 Nov;160(5):397-406. doi: 10.25259/ijmr_1729_23.

Abstract

Background & objectives Cancer is one of the leading causes of death among older adults worldwide. The global burden of cancer among older individuals is increasing due to the ageing population. The increasing burden of cancer among older adults will pose significant social and economic challenges for the delivery of healthcare services. Materials Estimated cancer new cases, deaths, age-standardized truncated incidence and mortality rate per 100,000 for older adults (60 yr or above) were reported using GLOBOCAN 2020 estimates (gco.iarc.fr). Mortality to Incidence ratio (M/I ratio) expressed in percentage by gender and continent was provided. Results Globally, of all cancer cases, 11.3 million cases (representing 62.3%) and 7.5 million deaths (representing 71.2%) were seen among older adults. The top five leading sites of cancer account for 62.2 per cent of older men and 55.9 per cent of older women; however, a widespread geographical variation across world regions is observed. The number of new cancer cases among older adults is expected to rise from 11.3 to 19.8 million (a 75.2% increase) and deaths from 3.99 to 7.3 million (82.8% increase) by 2040. Interpretation & conclusions The expected rise will bring exceptional challenges to healthcare systems, especially in lower- or lower-medium-income countries where resources are limited. Data on cancer among older adults will help health planners and policymakers develop global geriatric cancer control policies.

摘要

背景与目标 癌症是全球老年人主要死因之一。由于人口老龄化,全球老年人群的癌症负担正在增加。老年成年人癌症负担的增加将给医疗服务的提供带来重大社会和经济挑战。

材料 使用GLOBOCAN 2020估计值(gco.iarc.fr)报告了老年成年人(60岁及以上)每10万人的估计癌症新发病例、死亡病例、年龄标准化截短发病率和死亡率。提供了按性别和大洲以百分比表示的死亡率与发病率之比(M/I比)。

结果 在全球范围内,所有癌症病例中,老年成年人中有1130万例(占62.3%)和750万例死亡(占71.2%)。癌症的前五大主要部位在老年男性中占62.2%,在老年女性中占55.9%;然而,在世界各地区观察到广泛的地理差异。预计到2040年,老年成年人中的癌症新发病例数将从1130万增至1980万(增加75.2%),死亡人数将从399万增至730万(增加82.8%)。

解读与结论 预计的增长将给医疗系统带来巨大挑战,尤其是在资源有限的低收入或中低收入国家。老年成年人癌症数据将有助于卫生规划者和政策制定者制定全球老年癌症控制政策。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5dd7/11683504/4f1e5d194c1e/IJMR-160-5-397-g1.jpg

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