Department of Applied Mathematics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Kowloon, Hong Kong.
Michigan Institute for Data Science, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, USA.
Bull Math Biol. 2020 Jul 30;82(8):102. doi: 10.1007/s11538-020-00779-y.
Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a rare but fatal disease of humans and other primates caused by Ebola viruses. Study shows that the 2014-2015 EVD outbreak causes more than 10,000 deaths. In this paper, we propose and analyze a deterministic model to study the transmission dynamics of EVD in Sierra Leone, Guinea, and Liberia. Our analyses show that the model has two equilibria: (1) the disease-free equilibrium (DFE) which is locally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number ([Formula: see text]) is less than unity and unstable if it is greater than one, and (2) an endemic equilibrium (EE) which is globally asymptotically stable when [Formula: see text] is greater than unity. Furthermore, the backward bifurcation occurs, a coexistence between a stale DFE and a stable EE even if the [Formula: see text] is less than unity, which makes the disease control more strenuous and would depend on the initial size of subpopulation. By fitting to reported Ebola cases from Sierra Leone, Guinea, and Liberia in 2014-2015, our model has captured the epidemic patterns in all three countries and shed light on future Ebola control and prevention strategies.
埃博拉病毒病（EVD）是一种罕见但致命的人类和其他灵长类动物疾病，由埃博拉病毒引起。研究表明，2014-2015 年埃博拉疫情导致超过 10000 人死亡。在本文中，我们提出并分析了一个确定性模型，以研究塞拉利昂、几内亚和利比里亚的埃博拉病毒传播动力学。我们的分析表明，该模型有两个平衡点：（1）无病平衡点（DFE），当基本繁殖数（[Formula: see text]）小于 1 时局部渐近稳定，大于 1 时不稳定；（2）地方病平衡点（EE），当 [Formula: see text]大于 1 时全局渐近稳定。此外，还发生了反向分歧，即使 [Formula: see text]小于 1，也会出现一个稳定的 DFE 和一个稳定的 EE 共存，这使得疾病控制更加困难，并且将取决于亚种群的初始规模。通过拟合 2014-2015 年塞拉利昂、几内亚和利比里亚报告的埃博拉病例，我们的模型捕捉到了这三个国家的疫情模式，并为未来的埃博拉控制和预防策略提供了启示。
