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重新分析塞拉利昂埃博拉疫情的传播:地方社会动态的重要性。

Re-analysing Ebola spread in Sierra Leone: The importance of local social dynamics.

机构信息

School of Environmental Sciences, Njala University, Mokonde, Sierra Leone.

Department of Agriculture and Forestry, Eastern Polytechnic, Kenema, Sierra Leone.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2020 Nov 5;15(11):e0234823. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0234823. eCollection 2020.

Abstract

BACKGROUND

The 2013-15 Ebola epidemic in West Africa was the largest so far recorded, and mainly affected three adjacent countries, Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. The worst affected country (in terms of confirmed cases) was Sierra Leone. The present paper looks at the epidemic in Sierra Leone. The epidemic in this country was a concatenation of local outbreaks. These local outbreaks are not well characterized through analysis using standard numerical techniques. In part, this reflects difficulties in record collection at the height of the epidemic. This paper offers a different approach, based on application of field-based techniques of social investigation that provide a richer understanding of the epidemic.

METHODS

In a post-epidemic study (2016-18) of two districts (Bo and Moyamba) we use ethnographic data to reconstruct local infection pathways from evidence provided by affected communities, cross-referenced to records of the epidemic retained by the National Ebola Response Commission, now lodged in the Ebola Museum and Archive at Njala University. Our study documents and discusses local social and contextual factors largely missing from previously published studies.

RESULTS

Our major finding is that the epidemic in Sierra Leone was a series of local outbreaks, some of which were better contained than others. In those that were not well contained, a number of contingent factors helps explain loss of control. Several numerical studies have drawn attention to the importance of local heterogeneities in the Sierra Leone Ebola epidemic. Our qualitative study throws specific light on a number of elements that explain these heterogeneities: the role of externalities, health system deficiencies, cultural considerations and local coping capacities.

CONCLUSIONS

Social issues and local contingencies explain the spread of Ebola in Sierra Leone and are key to understanding heterogeneities in epidemiological data. Integrating ethnographic research into epidemic-response is critical to properly understand the patterns of spread and the opportunities to intervene. This conclusion has significant implications for future interdisciplinary research and interpretation of standard numerical data, and consequently for control of epidemic outbreaks.

摘要

背景

2013-2015 年西非埃博拉疫情是迄今为止记录到的最大规模疫情,主要影响了三个毗邻国家,即几内亚、利比里亚和塞拉利昂。受疫情影响最严重的国家(以确诊病例数衡量)是塞拉利昂。本文主要探讨塞拉利昂的疫情。该国的疫情是一系列局部暴发的组合。通过使用标准数值技术进行分析,这些局部暴发并没有得到很好的描述。在一定程度上,这反映了疫情高峰期数据收集的困难。本文提供了一种不同的方法,基于应用现场社会调查技术,对疫情有更深入的了解。

方法

在疫情后的研究(2016-2018 年)中,我们在两个区(博和莫扬巴)使用民族志数据,从受影响社区提供的证据中重建当地的感染途径,与国家埃博拉应对委员会保留的疫情记录交叉参考,这些记录现在存放在尼拉大学的埃博拉博物馆和档案馆。我们的研究记录并讨论了以前发表的研究中很少涉及的当地社会和背景因素。

结果

我们的主要发现是,塞拉利昂的疫情是一系列局部暴发,其中一些得到了较好的控制,而另一些则没有。在那些控制不好的暴发中,一些偶然因素有助于解释失控的原因。一些数值研究已经注意到塞拉利昂埃博拉疫情中局部异质性的重要性。我们的定性研究特别阐明了一些解释这些异质性的因素:外部性的作用、卫生系统的缺陷、文化因素和当地应对能力。

结论

社会问题和当地的偶然因素解释了埃博拉在塞拉利昂的传播,是理解流行病学数据异质性的关键。将民族志研究纳入疫情应对是正确理解传播模式和干预机会的关键。这一结论对未来的跨学科研究和标准数值数据的解释具有重要意义,因此对控制疫情爆发具有重要意义。

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