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全球雪旱热点及特征。

Global snow drought hot spots and characteristics.

机构信息

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697;

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697.

出版信息

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020 Aug 18;117(33):19753-19759. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1915921117. Epub 2020 Aug 3.

Abstract

Snow plays a fundamental role in global water resources, climate, and biogeochemical processes; however, no global snow drought assessments currently exist. Changes in the duration and intensity of droughts can significantly impact ecosystems, food and water security, agriculture, hydropower, and the socioeconomics of a region. We characterize the duration and intensity of snow droughts (snow water equivalent deficits) worldwide and differences in their distributions over 1980 to 2018. We find that snow droughts became more prevalent, intensified, and lengthened across the western United States (WUS). Eastern Russia, Europe, and the WUS emerged as hot spots for snow droughts, experiencing ∼2, 16, and 28% longer snow drought durations, respectively, in the latter half of 1980 to 2018. In this second half of the record, these regions exhibited a higher probability (relative to the first half of the record) of having a snow drought exceed the average intensity from the first period by 3, 4, and 15%. The Hindu Kush and Central Asia, extratropical Andes, greater Himalayas, and Patagonia, however, experienced decreases (percent changes) in the average snow drought duration (-4, -7, -8, and -16%, respectively). Although we do not attempt to separate natural and human influences with a detailed attribution analysis, we discuss some relevant physical processes (e.g., Arctic amplification and polar vortex movement) that likely contribute to observed changes in snow drought characteristics. We also demonstrate how our framework can facilitate drought monitoring and assessment by examining two snow deficits that posed large socioeconomic challenges in the WUS (2014/2015) and Afghanistan (2017/2018).

摘要

雪在全球水资源、气候和生物地球化学过程中起着至关重要的作用;然而,目前还没有全球雪旱评估。干旱持续时间和强度的变化会对生态系统、粮食和水安全、农业、水电以及一个地区的社会经济产生重大影响。我们描述了全球范围内雪旱(雪水当量亏缺)的持续时间和强度,以及其在 1980 年至 2018 年期间分布的差异。我们发现,在美国西部(WUS),雪旱变得更加普遍、强烈和持久。俄罗斯东部、欧洲和 WUS 成为雪旱的热点地区,与记录的前半段相比,雪旱持续时间分别延长了约 2%、16%和 28%。在这一记录的后半段,这些地区发生雪旱的概率(相对于记录的前半段)更高,即有 3%、4%和 15%的可能性出现雪旱强度超过前一时期的平均强度。然而,兴都库什山脉和中亚、安第斯山脉的温带地区、大喜马拉雅山脉和巴塔哥尼亚地区的平均雪旱持续时间则有所减少(分别减少了-4%、-7%、-8%和-16%)。虽然我们没有通过详细的归因分析来尝试区分自然和人为影响,但我们讨论了一些可能导致雪旱特征变化的相关物理过程(例如,北极放大和极地涡旋运动)。我们还通过研究在美国西部(2014/2015 年)和阿富汗(2017/2018 年)造成重大社会经济挑战的两个雪亏缺,展示了我们的框架如何促进干旱监测和评估。

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