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开设专门诊所对流感大流行期间疾病传播的影响。

The impact of opening dedicated clinics on disease transmission during an influenza pandemic.

机构信息

Krannert School of Management, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana, United States of America.

School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2020 Aug 6;15(8):e0236455. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0236455. eCollection 2020.

Abstract

Dedicated clinics can be established in an influenza pandemic to isolate people and potentially reduce opportunities for influenza transmission. However, their operation requires resources and their existence may attract the worried-well. In this study, we quantify the impact of opening dedicated influenza clinics during a pandemic based on an agent-based simulation model across a time-varying social network of households, workplaces, schools, community locations, and health facilities in the state of Georgia. We calculate performance measures, including peak prevalence and total attack rate, while accounting for clinic operations, including timing and location. We find that opening clinics can reduce disease spread and hospitalizations even when visited by the worried-well, open for limited weeks, or open in limited locations, and especially when the clinics are in operation during times of highest prevalence. Specifically, peak prevalence, total attack rate, and hospitalization reduced 0.07-0.32%, 0.40-1.51%, 0.02-0.09%, respectively, by operating clinics for the pandemic duration.

摘要

可以在流感大流行期间设立专门的诊所来隔离人群,并有可能减少流感传播的机会。然而,它们的运作需要资源,而且它们的存在可能会吸引那些担心自己健康的人。在这项研究中,我们基于一个代理模拟模型,在佐治亚州的家庭、工作场所、学校、社区地点和卫生设施的时变社交网络中,量化了在大流行期间开设专门流感诊所的影响。我们计算了性能指标,包括峰值流行率和总发病率,同时考虑了诊所的运作,包括时间和地点。我们发现,即使诊所是为那些担心自己健康的人开放的,只开放有限的几周,或者只在有限的地点开放,或者在流行率最高的时候开放,都可以减少疾病的传播和住院治疗。具体来说,通过在大流行期间开设诊所,峰值流行率、总发病率和住院率分别降低了 0.07%-0.32%、0.40%-1.51%和 0.02%-0.09%。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/283d/7410326/5aac5200a738/pone.0236455.g001.jpg

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