Gul Serdar, Tuncay Kagan, Binici Baris, Aydin Beyazit Bestami
Department of Infectious Diseases and Clinical Microbiology, Kirikkale University, Kirikkale, Turkey.
Faculty of Engineering, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey.
J Infect Dev Ctries. 2020 Jul 31;14(7):713-720. doi: 10.3855/jidc.12844.
There are significant differences in the active cases and fatality rates of Covid-19 for different European countries.
The present study employs Monte Carlo based transmission growth simulations for Italy, Germany and Turkey. The probabilities of transmission at home, work and social networks and the number of initial cases have been calibrated to match the basic reproduction number and the reported fatality curves. Parametric studies were conducted to observe the effect of social distancing, work closure, testing and quarantine of the family and colleagues of positively tested individuals.
It is observed that estimates of the number of initial cases in Italy compared to Turkey and Germany are higher. Turkey will probably experience about 30% less number of fatalities than Germany due its smaller elderly population. If social distancing and work contacts are limited to 25% of daily routines, Germany and Turkey may limit the number of fatalities to a few thousands as the reproduction number decreases to about 1.3 from 2.8. Random testing may reduce the number of fatalities by 10% upon testing least 5/1000 of the population. Quarantining of family and workmates of positively tested individuals may reduce the total number of fatalities by about 50%.
The fatality rate of Covid-19 is estimated to be about 1.5% based on the simulation results. This may further be reduced by limiting the number of non-family contacts to two, conducting tests more than 0.5% of the population and immediate quarantine of the contacts for positively tested individuals.
不同欧洲国家的新冠疫情活跃病例数和死亡率存在显著差异。
本研究对意大利、德国和土耳其采用基于蒙特卡洛的传播增长模拟。已对家庭、工作场所和社交网络中的传播概率以及初始病例数进行校准，以匹配基本再生数和报告的死亡曲线。进行了参数研究，以观察社交距离、工作场所关闭、检测以及对检测呈阳性个体的家人和同事进行隔离的影响。
观察到，与土耳其和德国相比，意大利的初始病例数估计更高。由于老年人口较少，土耳其的死亡人数可能比德国少约30%。如果社交距离和工作接触限制在日常活动的25%，随着再生数从2.8降至约1.3，德国和土耳其可能将死亡人数限制在数千人以内。随机检测至少覆盖人口的5/1000时，可将死亡人数减少10%。对检测呈阳性个体的家人和同事进行隔离可将总死亡人数减少约50%。
根据模拟结果，新冠病毒的死亡率估计约为1.5%。通过将非家庭接触人数限制为两人、检测超过人口的0.5%以及对检测呈阳性个体的接触者立即进行隔离，这一死亡率可能会进一步降低。
