Tosi Davide, Verde Alessandro, Verde Manuela
Department of Theoretical and Applied Science, University of Insubria, Varese, Italy.
Heart Failure Unit, Niguarda Cardio Center, Cardiothoracic and Vascular Department, ASST Great Metropolitan Hospital Niguarda, Milan, Italy.
J Med Internet Res. 2020 Jun 17;22(6):e19825. doi: 10.2196/19825.
The fatality rate of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Italy is controversial and is greatly affecting discussion on the impact of containment measures that are straining the world's social and economic fabric, such as instigating large-scale isolation and quarantine, closing borders, imposing limits on public gatherings, and implementing nationwide lockdowns.
The scientific community, citizens, politicians, and mass media are expressing concerns regarding data suggesting that the number of COVID-19-related deaths in Italy is significantly higher than in the rest of the world. Moreover, Italian citizens have misleading perceptions related to the number of swab tests that have actually been performed. Citizens and mass media are denouncing the coverage of COVID-19 swab testing in Italy, claiming that it is not in line with that in other countries worldwide.
In this paper, we attempt to clarify the aspects of COVID-19 fatalities and testing in Italy by performing a set of statistical analyses that highlight the actual numbers in Italy and compare them with official worldwide data.
The analysis clearly shows that the Italian COVID-19 fatality and mortality rates are in line with the official world scenario, as are the numbers of COVID-19 tests performed in Italy and in the Lombardy region.
This up-to-date analysis may elucidate the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy.
意大利冠状病毒病（COVID-19）的死亡率存在争议，这对有关遏制措施影响的讨论产生了重大影响，这些措施正使世界社会和经济结构紧张，例如引发大规模隔离和检疫、关闭边境、限制公众集会以及实施全国范围的封锁。
科学界、公民、政治家和大众媒体对数据表示担忧，这些数据表明意大利与COVID-19相关的死亡人数明显高于世界其他地区。此外，意大利公民对实际进行的拭子检测数量存在误解。公民和大众媒体谴责意大利对COVID-19拭子检测的报道，称其与世界其他国家不一致。
在本文中，我们通过进行一系列统计分析来试图阐明意大利COVID-19死亡和检测的情况，这些分析突出了意大利的实际数字并将其与全球官方数据进行比较。
分析清楚地表明，意大利的COVID-19死亡率和病死率与全球官方情况一致，意大利和伦巴第地区进行的COVID-19检测数量也是如此。
这项最新分析可能会阐明意大利COVID-19大流行的演变情况。
