School of Public Finance and Taxation, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu, 611130, Sichuan, People's Republic of China.
Research School of Finance, Actuarial Studies, and Statistics, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, 2601, Australia.
Sci Rep. 2020 Aug 19;10(1):14015. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-71023-9.
The fourth outbreak of the Coronaviruses, known as the COVID-19, has occurred in Wuhan city of Hubei province in China in December 2019. We propose a time-varying sparse vector autoregressive (VAR) model to retrospectively analyze and visualize the dynamic transmission routes of this outbreak in mainland China over January 31-February 19, 2020. Our results demonstrate that the influential inter-location routes from Hubei have become unidentifiable since February 4, 2020, whereas the self-transmission in each provincial-level administrative region (location, hereafter) was accelerating over February 4-15, 2020. From February 16, 2020, all routes became less detectable, and no influential transmissions could be identified on February 18 and 19, 2020. Such evidence supports the effectiveness of government interventions, including the travel restrictions in Hubei. Implications of our results suggest that in addition to the origin of the outbreak, virus preventions are of crucial importance in locations with the largest migrant workers percentages (e.g., Jiangxi, Henan and Anhui) to controlling the spread of COVID-19.
2019 年 12 月，中国湖北省武汉市爆发了第四次冠状病毒疫情，即 COVID-19。我们提出了一个时变稀疏向量自回归（VAR）模型，以回溯分析和可视化 2020 年 1 月 31 日至 2 月 19 日期间中国大陆疫情的动态传播途径。结果表明，自 2020 年 2 月 4 日起，湖北省与其他地区的疫情传播已难以追踪，而 2 月 4 日至 15 日期间，各省级行政区（以下简称地点）的疫情自我传播速度加快。自 2 月 16 日起，各传播途径变得难以察觉，2 月 18 日和 19 日已无法识别有影响力的传播途径。这一证据表明政府干预措施（包括对湖北省的旅行限制）是有效的。我们的研究结果表明，除了疫情爆发的源头之外，对于流动人口比例最高的地区（如江西、河南和安徽），病毒预防对于控制 COVID-19 的传播至关重要。
